Sam 🇦🇺🇺🇦 @samstrades
Full time investor, data junkie. Worked in civil/criminal law for 12 years (Clayton Utz, NSW DCJ and ODPP) Australia Joined January 2010-
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Stagflationary Kiwi jobs number this morning. Unemployment rate rose from 4% to 4.3% (vs 4.2% expected) despite a BIG drop in participation. Employment actually fell (!) while wages grew at 0.8% QoQ. Follows strong employment cost index numbers (wages) out of the USA overnight.
So Norway banned smartphones in schools and 3 years later, girls’ GPAs are up, their visits to mental health professionals are down 60% and bullying in both boys and girls is down 43-46%. That’s wild
@dijitalasset if you criticise at least criticise well, we're already close to a recession given per capita recession and consumption (retail sales) recession; it's weird coming up with 'you were wrong in 2022' given current economic backdrop almost wanna pick a fight for some silly reason 🤪
@dijitalasset lol, that's before i learnt inverted bond yields is mainly BS when it comes to forecasting a recession, not a 100% track record and plus that was US not Oz also, don't know if you're using your brain cells, we're already in per capita recession & GDP growth is 0.2% last quarter
When you commit a crime in Japan, citizens will literally drag your ass to the police station. This is why their crime rate is so low.
@samstrades Transmission costs have to increase as we need to pay for the higher interest rates for these geared up private businesses and the big salaries/"consultant fees" to head office. Dont worry none of it will be spent on the actually improving the infrastructure
The Home Office can’t find thousands of illegal asylum seekers to deport them Apparently, its been relying on free accommodation and £49 a week to encourage them to keep in touch! Criminally lax approach to safety of British people. thetimes.co.uk/article/14561d…
Body systems are groups of organs and tissues that work together to perform important jobs for the body. Here you have a visualization of the 11 main systems of the human body.
Trump leads Biden in major battleground states: Polls thehill.com/homenews/campa…
JUST IN: Taiwan's economy grows 6.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, the strongest growth since 2021.
What it takes to change a lightbulb on the top of a 457 meter high television broadcast antenna over the South Dakota plains [📹 Kevin Schmidt]
@Donsvess I worry about 10s of billions going to parasitic, unproductive and oligopolistic FIRE sector and property lobby to prop up housing market, i'm least worried about a few billion going to manufacturing which might pay off one day
Where’s O’Neil and Giles? Why aren’t they commenting on this latest mess they’ve got us into?
@samstrades @_warrenhogan Job losses are definitely increasing..i think ABS unemployment data is either inaccurate or manipulated to keep the mass immigration going. But a few of the recruiters told me that they get about 300 applications for some of the IT jobs...housing crash will follow...
"Delinquencies have started to pick up, especially for autos and credit cards. However, these rates remain below pre- GFC levels, and delinquencies on mortgages and home equity loans remain near historic lows." - Jefferies
Bro forgot to apply the parking brake
I say Albo’s Ministers, O’Neil (Home Affairs) and Giles (Immigration) should be sacked. Who agrees with me?
I challenge you to walk through a midsized European city one spring afternoon, then argue something about falling behind America.
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4K Followers 51 Following That which seems to be wealth may in verity be only the gilded index of far-reaching ruin. Draw your own conclusions.
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9K Followers 686 Following Bringing thought back into property... 2024 Year of Opportunities - They that take action & take control win - Don't just talk about it - Do it...
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8K Followers 207 Following I provide advice and strategy to investors in small cap stocks (since 1998) Precious/base metals, biotech and industrials. Economic and property commentator.
aushousing watch @aushousingWatch
4K Followers 344 Following Real estate observations /// macro | micro | capital | money markets | social theories /// be informed. #melbre #sydre #ausecon #ausbiz
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4K Followers 671 Following Former Divisional Director FX at Macquarie a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. Oz property halves. ASX goes to 1500.
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A-Z Trader @theAZtrader
8K Followers 96 Following A party boy investor taking on the shitty ASX. Beware of fakes, there is only one @theAZtrader and he has no fckn idea what he is doing 💋
Charlie Munger Fans @CharlieMunger00
79K Followers 4K Following Fan page & not the real Charlie Munger ☆ Together lets celebrate Munger 👌 Postings done by Anthony White
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The new book by @DrCameronMurray blew my mind a few times. He finds that at the macro level rents are largely determined by income. In Australia, rents have run about 20% of after-tax income for many decades. Even if the supply of rental homes jumped or crashed, within a...
... few years rents at the macro level would be back to around 20% of after-tax income. If supply jumped, renters would be getting better housing for their 20% of income. If supply tanked, they would get worse housing for their 20%. Regardless of supply, they'd still be spending…
Another point is that skyrocketing rents are usually caused by economic booms. Income jumps, and then rents jump, and then people get mad, and then the newspapers are filled with stories about the "housing crisis". He gives examples from the 1900s and 1800s in the book.
Here's some equivalent numbers for the U.S. After accounting for the break in the data between 2012 and 2013, we don't see skyrocketing rents in 2020 and 2021. This chart surprised me. Cameron seems to be onto something.
This shows the break in the data between 2012 and 2013 in how the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculated renter taxes (and explains why the red line in the chart above jumped in 2013).
Takeaway is don't expect landlord tax breaks, higher-density building, or getting rid of zoning, etc. to lower rents overall. Over the long run, about the only way to get rents to fall is to get the economy to fall... but rent as a percent of after-tax income would be similar.
Stagflationary Kiwi jobs number this morning. Unemployment rate rose from 4% to 4.3% (vs 4.2% expected) despite a BIG drop in participation. Employment actually fell (!) while wages grew at 0.8% QoQ. Follows strong employment cost index numbers (wages) out of the USA overnight.
Russia is a terrorist state
Footage has been released regarding the attack in Odesa, yesterday. It confirms that Russia used cluster ammunition against a civilian center. One of many deliberate war crimes Russia has committed over the course of this war. Source of video: Telegram / Uniannet
@samstrades They were just here to have a curry for the country youtu.be/HCT3xkfNkMw?si…
@samstrades @MarkDiStef @_warrenhogan Rates are more normal now. Every mortgage I ever had through my life was set off these rates and higher.
@samstrades @igorsushko All of NATO needs to push his ass back past Moscow
@samstrades They splash the cash to try and benefit re-election
@samstrades Why didn’t the wholesale price reductions get passed on to consumers?
@thanujaniri @samstrades @_warrenhogan The numbers are bogus. Someone working 1 hour per week is counted as employed. If every employer sudden5made all workers 1hr/week wedstill be at 3,8%
Sticky core inflation... The US Employment Cost Index rose by 1.2% in the first quarter of 2024, accelerating from a 0.9% increase in the previous three-month period and beating the market consensus of a 1% growth. Employment costs rose the most in one year, as wages and…
@IFM_Economist Wages are not going down with unemployment this low and sustained inflation. Fantasy stuff from the RBA.
So Norway banned smartphones in schools and 3 years later, girls’ GPAs are up, their visits to mental health professionals are down 60% and bullying in both boys and girls is down 43-46%. That’s wild
UN: unwilling to condemn Hamas who killed, raped, mutilated and tortured more than 1,000 Israeli babies, children, women, and elderly. Also UN:
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