SuperMacro @super_macro
Veteran hedge fund PM with 25 years’ experience of trading and macro investment. Ex-Brevan Howard partner and PM for 12 years, former Citigroup MD super-macro.com Joined February 2023-
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Supermacro Meets the FedGuy Can the Fed still find reasons to cut? @FedGuy12 #inflation #macro #economy #rates #equities #fx #dollar #FedFund #mortagaes #Fed #ECB #BoE #BoJ #rates #volatility #TIPS #VIX #SuperCore #earnings #assets #liabilities #options #calls #puts #spreads…
See the full episode below or visit Super-Macro Management (/supermacromanagement) · solo.to
Total of filled and vacant jobs still exceeds supply of workers
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Treasury notes that the tremendous migration is raising the bar on what it takes to be a "good" employment report. We need 200k jobs a month to maintain the unemployment rate, up from 100k a month before.
via MS, it looks like a significant portion of the consumption story this year rests on continued deflation of goods prices @super_macro @BobEUnlimited
It's very funny that the Fed this week is going to have to acknowledge its inflation goal becoming increasingly far away, while at the same time likely annoucning an easing of monetary policy via slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction (QT). "Higher inflation. Ease policy!"
Do you own $BTC Bitcoin because you truly believe in it, or simply because you don’t want to miss out just in case it keeps rising? I own it even though I don’t really believe in it. I just want to make money if it runs.
The QRA this week will dictate the supply of debt sold in the next 3 months. There are societal needs that will require massive spending in the years to come. More military spending. Huge investments in electric grid. Social security reform. Term premium needs to rise.
IMO the pain trade here is to just go up to all time highs.
@super_macro People who believe numbers out of China. Awwwww
Traders make the mistake of thinking that their Trading Strategy is their edge. It’s not. Their trading strategy is not unique, there’ll be many who use the same strategy. The edge comes from the trader’s ability to apply their strategy effectively. That requires a high level…
Chag Pesach Sameach to my Jewish friends!
Anyways.... Tonight is Pesach. My grandfather had two Seders in Theresienstadt. He ended each one with the same last line of the Haggadah that Jewish people had said/sung for centuries before him.
Why? University presidents are literally hired for having that unique skill - to dance and weave and try to make every stakeholder from the 95 yr out alum to the 2 yr out alum feel heard, seen & valued. From the French professors with dying programs to the understaffed biochem…
What’s remarkable about these university presidents is how they dance around the truth, ducking and weaving before they are forced to admit their failures of leadership. Watch @RepStefanik question @Columbia President Shafik as she tries to avoid admitting that anti-Jewish…
@super_macro I think the key nuance is that the wealth increase is extremely uneven across income spectrum and likely heavily concentrated among the wealthy/high income, who are usually low MPC consumers and net savers. That likely has implications for aggregate demand and CPI inflation?
@stevehouf @super_macro You've nailed that savings drivers point. On the second tweet, High MPC consumers drive the delta in consumption. Look at Covid helicopter money. It wasn't very precise but at least gave to below a certain income threshold. What happened to goods inflation? 🚀 No PS4s in stock.
@stevehouf Yes as long as fiscal taps are full open rates will not help - and fiscal discipline is not on the horizon
Financial savings is a component of wealth, which includes other things like equity prices, house prices, crypto etc. Wealth continues surge with all asset prices and can finance spending.
Interesting IMF chart on the rundown in "savings from the pandemic." Note, in particular, the US relative to other advanced economies. #economy #econtwitter @IMFNews
Congratulations 🎉
Today is the 5th anniversary of my founding of Damped Spring Institutional. I am grateful for all of my hedge fund investor clients and all that I have met here on Twitter. I look forward to contributing here for years to come
Yes I still think 3 cuts this year.
The mullahs are currently shitting their pants. They have just witnessed how weak and incompetent they really are and how united everyone is against them. They are fucked. Not even CNN can hype this joke attack.
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