The Capital Allocator @theallocator_
Family Office Investment Lead | Long Term Capital Allocator | Not Financial Advice Joined October 2022-
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The Capital Allocator retweeted
Another Sinner-Alcaraz final is booked, this time at the #USOpen. Their era has been well underway for a while now.
What if the next decade delivers 0% for U.S. equities and 4% for Treasuries? The conditional historic method — which ties starting valuations to forward returns — points in exactly that direction. Based on today’s earnings yields and bond yields, history suggests: Equities: ~0%…
The Capital Allocator retweeted
Optimus from @Tesla will be the most successful product in the history of humanity.
The cycles of USD outperformance and underperformance are long and persistent. The open question: Will Trump’s policies be enough to trigger a lasting USD depreciation? Or, given the Eurodollar market and the “Dollar Milkshake” dynamics, is a long-term appreciation of the USD…
Even as passive investors, it’s impossible to ignore the implications of this: nearly 60% of U.S. Assets under Managenent are now passive. That concentration raises important questions about price discovery, market efficiency, and the risks (or opportunities) in the years ahead.…
The Capital Allocator retweeted
Gold is like Bitcoin except it actually behaves how people want Bitcoin to, and it's getting twapped by literal central banks
Gold is like Bitcoin except it actually behaves how people want Bitcoin to, and it's getting twapped by literal central banks
The Capital Allocator retweeted
Gold 2x the S&P 500's return over the past 25 years
US markets closed, Europe sleepy—but changes ahead: Deutsche Bank back in Euro Stoxx 50, Rheinmetall replaces Mercedes. Bonds show stress (UK 30y at ’98 highs, Dutch pension reform looms), gold & silver surge, while S&P valuations look stretched. September could get rough.…
How much stronger would Apple be today if the billions spent on buybacks in recent years had instead gone into R&D? Siri might not be lagging behind. Apple’s position in the AI race might look very different. $AAPL
Like October 2021…
For years, media narratives painted a simple picture: 🇫🇷 Macron as Europe’s political star, leading France into renewal. 🇮🇹 Meloni’s victory as the supposed “end of Western civilization.” Markets, however, tell a different story. At the start of Meloni’s term, Italian…
Warren Buffett’s secret isn’t luck — it’s factors. For decades, the “Oracle of Omaha” has outperformed the market. Many call it genius. But a closer look shows something different. Since 1978, the market factor has been the strongest driver of returns. Momentum, quality, and…
Hopes for lower U.S. interest rates have recently sparked a strong rebound in small-cap stocks. The critical question now: can this momentum truly reverse the long-standing relative downtrend versus large caps — or is it just another short-term rally? Chart: @johnauthers
The Capital Allocator retweeted
U.S. stocks still trade at a steep premium, while global ex-US, small caps, and value sit at historic discounts. The “cheap vs. expensive” gap in equities hasn’t been this stark in decades.
In 2024, the consensus was deafening: “Chinese equities are uninvestable. The only game in town is the Nasdaq.” But markets love irony. Since that capitulation moment, Chinese stocks have quietly outperformed much of the world. A reminder: consensus often marks the end of a…
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