Ulrich Speck @ulrichspeck
Foreign policy analyst and strategist. Columnist NZZ. Ex GMF Berlin, Washington; Carnegie, Elcano Brussels; RFERL Prague, PhD history Heidelberg/Berlin Joined June 2009-
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While the West is urging Ukraine not to strike military targets in Russia...
While the West is urging Ukraine not to strike military targets in Russia...
Xi has arrived in Paris Here's the itinerary the Élysée has made for the next couple of days. Monday 10.30 Macron and VDL meet 11.05 Trilateral Macron, VDL, Xi at 11.05 15:00 Welcome ceremony at Les Invalides, includes flag honours, 🇫🇷🇨🇳 anthems, inspection of troops,
For years we heard that Russia is an indispensable partner on x and y. Russia didn't deliver, instead it took every carrot the West provided under the headline "we need the Russians".
For years we heard that Russia is an indispensable partner on x and y. Russia didn't deliver, instead it took every carrot the West provided under the headline "we need the Russians".
The Luzon Strait is to a potential war with China what the Fulda Gap was to the Cold War —
Die AfD will den ungarischen Weg gehen -- nicht den polnischen oder baltischen Weg.
The west still hasn't understood that Putin's goal is to change the balance of power between Russia and the West, that he is using every door the West let's open to pursue his goals. Russian's strength is the consequence of Western weakness. There is still no counter-strategy.
All diese naheliegenden Ideen, der Ukraine besser zu helfen, müssen dem Kanzler geradezu aufgezwungen werden.
All diese naheliegenden Ideen, der Ukraine besser zu helfen, müssen dem Kanzler geradezu aufgezwungen werden.
Krieg ist eine Konfrontation des Willens, und damit auch des Managements von Erwartungen. Wenn der Westen will, kann er Putin klar machen, dass er gegen die Ukraine nicht gewinnen kann. Das erfordert glaubwürdige, unterfütterte Willenserklärungen (nicht leere Deklamationen).
Krieg ist eine Konfrontation des Willens, und damit auch des Managements von Erwartungen. Wenn der Westen will, kann er Putin klar machen, dass er gegen die Ukraine nicht gewinnen kann. Das erfordert glaubwürdige, unterfütterte Willenserklärungen (nicht leere Deklamationen).
(KS) Nach Abzug der 🇩🇪 Fregatte "Hessen" stehen EU-Mission "Aspides" zum Schutz von Handelsschiffen im Roten Meer alsbald nur noch drei Fregatten zur Verfügung. 10 Fregatten nebst Luftunterstützung wären aber nötig. Deren Bereitstellung ist nicht in Sicht. n-tv.de/24921157
Unsurprisingly. Cozying up to China, and thinking about Kosovo and Serbia...
Unsurprisingly. Cozying up to China, and thinking about Kosovo and Serbia...
Talking the talk -- but not walking the walk.
In Paris, officials celebrate the friendship with the CCP, in preparation of the Xi visit.
In Paris, officials celebrate the friendship with the CCP, in preparation of the Xi visit.
"Europe could have pushed Russia into a deep financial crisis if it had just enforced sanctions". Exactly
"Europe could have pushed Russia into a deep financial crisis if it had just enforced sanctions". Exactly
No money from Paris for the Czech initiative it seems -- an initiative that is vital for Ukraine's ability to sustain the war.
It is simply unimaginable what Ukrainians are going through. And yet they keep fighting, for their future, their country, their freedom -- and for Europe's security against Russia.
Es darf nicht bloß bei Worten der Verurteilung und beim Einbestellen des Botschafters bleiben, sondern es muss Konsequenzen haben: Sanktionen verschärfen, Russische Logistik einschränken, Gegenmaßnahmen durchführen, unsere Sicherheit z.B. bei Spionageabwehr stärken! 2/2 @ZDFheute
Die Kriegsführung hat sich gewandelt. Russland flankiert den konventionellen Krieg gegen Ukraine mit hybriden Krieg gegen Europa: Cyberangriffe, GPS-Störungen, Sabotage KRITIS, Beeinflussung von Wahlen u.v.w. Wir sind Kriegsziel und massiv angegriffen. 1/ zdf.de/nachrichten/po…
US finally using the emergency brake
Jessica Berlin @berlin_bridge
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632 Followers 855 Following NATO and Russia. Defense strategy and military ops @ACScowcroft Forward Defense. Non-resident fellow @GPPi. Alumna @REESOxford and @SAISHopkins.@ulrichspeck There was a long POLITICO article with tons of quotes from US officials about the run-up to the invasion.
@ulrichspeck Your tweet is misleading...
@ulrichspeck Haven't come across anything better than that. Unless it is in German, or French, but I haven't heard of any as well
US universities are desperate for summer vacation to start
This may be right in the US, but certainly not in Germany. We have a long way to go to understand the threat and live up to it
JUST OUT: Why we have reached a tipping point where the public conversation about foreign influence operations is doing more harm than good foreignaffairs.com/russian-federa…
@ulrichspeck Interesting framing. For me, everything fans out from the US-China contest, even the room for manoeuvre Putin currently enjoys in Ukraine. Completely agree on the need to focus again on deterrence. But containment will be harder - against Russia and China. Too many other players
Chorumi – lernt man natürlich bei US-finanzierten NGOs 🕺
What do Georgians do at the protest? Of course they dance. And they dance Khorumi, traditional war dance. #TbilisiProtests (video by good friend Mariam Tsertsvadze).
@ulrichspeck only in october we will see. ivanishvili is highly unpopular but opposition too fractured and disorganized to capitalize on this.
@shashj How exactly is this “much broader than what is currently being done within NATO”? If it excludes the US, Canada, but also others such as Turkey, Iceland, it’s much narrower & actually risks undermining NATO or at least creating massive confusion.
I missed the usual reference to the Owl of Minerva, though…
Macron’s Freudian psychoanalysis of Europe: “What kills me is the spirit of defeat. Politics is Eros versus Thanatos. If Thanatos is hungrier, death wins. If Europeans are on the side of Eros, it’s the only way to manage. Don’t be afraid, be bold.” economist.com/europe/2024/05…
@Virkki5 Macron wants to lead Europe to be autonomous from the US, which biases his views vis a vis China, as was the case with Russia.
@vonderburchard Let’s hope Brigitte and Britta talk some sense into them
@BonnieGlaser It's Quincy, saved a bunch of clicks there for everyone.
@billscher @EricCortellessa @TIME Wait until his next interview
@ulrichspeck Das müsste er in der Tat. Nicht zuletzt fordert die NSS (S.29), die Regierung müsse Entscheidungen und damit Strategien "transparent erörtern".
You can sense he’s on the way out. Holding nothing back. And communicating it clearly.
Stoltenberg: "NATO countries have not delivered [on] their promises, the US spent months not agreeing on a package for Ukraine, European allies have not delivered [on] their promises, and this had a serious consequence on the battlefield." politico.eu/article/jens-s…
@ulrichspeck Der Punkt ist ein anderer,lieber @ulrichspeck: aus chinesischer Sicht gibt es keinen erkennbaren strategischen Gewinn, wenn man westlichen Bitten um Druck auf Russland entspräche, im Gegenteil. Daher die Frage: könnte der Westen für Peking mehr Anreize schaffen? Wenn ja, welche?
@ulrichspeck Whose war of aggression? (Sorry — I know what you mean, but maybe worth a fix)
@ulrichspeck But they love to discuss about the Donald and autonomy (:
Ja, und das Argument, dass der amerikanische Steuerzahler - also ich - noch irgendeinen Cent für Europas Sicherheit aufbringen sollten, wird halt nicht plausibler angesichts dieser europäischen Passivität.
Too few people notice how strange it is that US military support for Ukraine decides about the fate of Europe. Western Europeans with their world class economies and deep pockets had two years to ramp up production of arms and ammunition. But they remained passive.