NewParadigmFinance @FinanceParadigm
Jaco Grobler is an independent Risk & Strategy advisor, he is former CRO for a large South African Bank. Joined February 2020-
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Entertaining with quite a bit of truth
Entertaining with quite a bit of truth
Brilliant infographic!
This will create a liquidity crunch. The economy runs on credit. If you shut down credit extension, the economy will contract. Happening all over the world
This will create a liquidity crunch. The economy runs on credit. If you shut down credit extension, the economy will contract. Happening all over the world
This smells like a recession
Commercial real estate could very much be the trigger for the next wave in the Financial crisis.
Can someone explain how we are not in a recession when tax revenues are down 15% y-o-y ewn.co.za/2023/04/04/sar…
This should have been labelled Loadshedding, the ANC government and the poor citizens of South Africa #eskom #Loadshedding #ANC
2. So there's a kind of collective denial how credit cycles work. Assuming credit in % GDP is stable into end-2023 is arguably an optimistic assumption. Yet even in this positive scenario, the credit impulse almost guarantees a US hard landing. Odds of deep recession have risen.
This will happen all over the world and have a negative feedback loop to the Banking system...and Financial Stability
This will happen all over the world and have a negative feedback loop to the Banking system...and Financial Stability
Not a good sign!
The key question is for how long will interest rates remain high...if long enough, a solvency crisis unfolds
The key question is for how long will interest rates remain high...if long enough, a solvency crisis unfolds
Ah, this is the answer. Really bad news for banking sector. Sovereign debt problem leads to a banking solvency problem. The penny is yet to drop that Banks are not better placed than in GFC.
Ah, this is the answer. Really bad news for banking sector. Sovereign debt problem leads to a banking solvency problem. The penny is yet to drop that Banks are not better placed than in GFC.
Early cracks that may lead to another Financial Crisis...this time however Sovereigns have limited ability to bail out
Early cracks that may lead to another Financial Crisis...this time however Sovereigns have limited ability to bail out
Does anyone know what brings about these unrealized losses? Perhaps bond holdings that are not mtm in I/S?
Does anyone know what brings about these unrealized losses? Perhaps bond holdings that are not mtm in I/S?
All the signs are there, yet people struggle to see that we are entering the fallout of a massive debt crisis.
All the signs are there, yet people struggle to see that we are entering the fallout of a massive debt crisis.
I wrote this piece last week. Ever more important to consider the risks now that we have hit stage 6 #loadshedding again (major marker for trouble this winter) newparadigmfinance.com/f/eskom-electr…
They should prepare for a bit more than that
They should prepare for a bit more than that
I am sure many did not believe him 3 days ago.
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