Mike Singleton, CFA @InvictusMacro
Senior Analyst at Invictus Research | Check out our FREE Macro Handbook at https://t.co/FcFoQSknwz invictus-research.com Joined September 2021-
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As long as claims remain in the vicinity of 200k, it's hard to imagine this changing... Labor market remains quite tight relative to history... And there's some evidence it is tightening up further still
As long as claims remain in the vicinity of 200k, it's hard to imagine this changing... Labor market remains quite tight relative to history... And there's some evidence it is tightening up further still https://t.co/y1nHiXkQI0
Nonfinancial corporate profit margins are elevated relative to history, +700 bps compared to Q1 2020 Are we due for a collapse? What's the catalyst?
Over the last six months, consumption has grown at 6.0% annualized That is consistent with - a robust if tight labor market It is not consistent with - 2% inflation - a recession Also consumption growth is accelerating again (up from 3.9% in Aug, 6ma)
Fun fact, growth in M2 money and inflation are uncorrelated Can anyone tell me why?
Who was the most dominant player in their prime (n.b. *not* the "best")
I like energy stocks as much as the next guy, but small-cap energy has been flat for two years and is basically trading around its 200-dma $PSCE Just an observation
Prices Are Going Up! ... And I'm not just talking about stocks. We are currently rolling out substantial improvements in our research suite, including a mobile app and several artificial intelligence-enabled investment tools. Consequently, we have to raise prices by ~33%…
Just a reminder - many of the Fed's most important measures of underlying inflationary momentum are trending lower... Cuts aren't off the table
Where is the stress in credit? Leveraged loans down <0.5% from peak Not what you would expect if we're headed into economic turmoil
Yesterday, the Philly Fed posted blow-out manufacturing growth in its April report Headline PMI increased from 3.2 ➡️ 15.5 Implies the ISM number increasing to 53.1 for April Haven't heard many folks talking about this...
Why aren't investors buying defensives?
$6.4 tr in money market assets, $1.8 tr of which is retail Is this just money waiting to pile into stocks at the right time? Not exactly But, it does have *indirect* implications for the stock market through something called the "rebalancing effect" We discuss it in today's…
Until these lines more definitively break down, it's pretty hard to get bearish "The best economist is the inside of the stock market" - Stan Druckenmiller What are the market internals saying now? $HYG $IEI $RSPD $RSPS
Per-mile trucker pricing is firming up, +20 bps MoM - Sequential acceleration in March - Second consecutive positive comp - Third positive comp in last four months More evidence that the goods economy & adjacent industries are heating up #reflation
To clarify, historically, Base metals ⬆️ Economic growth ⬆️ Corporate earnings ⬆️ Stock prices ⬆️
To clarify, historically, Base metals ⬆️ Economic growth ⬆️ Corporate earnings ⬆️ Stock prices ⬆️ https://t.co/JAECuVGD97
Ian McMillan, CMT @the_chart_life
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Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺�.. @agnostoxxx
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ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq @donnelly_brent
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Is it possible to see a bear market if airlines are market leadership? $JETS has outperformed 82% of stocks over the last six months and 76% of stocks over the last three months
Nonfinancial corporate profit margins are elevated relative to history, +700 bps compared to Q1 2020 Are we due for a collapse? What's the catalyst?
My Risk-On / Risk-Off Ratio is breaking out higher to fresh all-time highs! $SPY $SPX #stocks
As long as claims remain in the vicinity of 200k, it's hard to imagine this changing... Labor market remains quite tight relative to history... And there's some evidence it is tightening up further still
Over the last six months, consumption has grown at 6.0% annualized That is consistent with - a robust if tight labor market It is not consistent with - 2% inflation - a recession Also consumption growth is accelerating again (up from 3.9% in Aug, 6ma)
@InvictusMacro The problem with money supply comes when it goes directly to consumers in the form of government subsidies, like what happened after covid
@InvictusMacro Because it’s also a function of the velocity of money and economic output. If velocity remains low or economic output is really strong, then that can keep a lid on inflation despite higher money supply
@InvictusMacro TWT if this is a reacceleration or just a small reversion in the downtrend. Still highlights the tricky situation the Fed is in. Out of curiosity, why do 6-month annualized instead of 12-month?
Over the last six months, consumption has grown at 6.0% annualized That is consistent with - a robust if tight labor market It is not consistent with - 2% inflation - a recession Also consumption growth is accelerating again (up from 3.9% in Aug, 6ma)
Fun fact, growth in M2 money and inflation are uncorrelated Can anyone tell me why?
I like energy stocks as much as the next guy, but small-cap energy has been flat for two years and is basically trading around its 200-dma $PSCE Just an observation
Keep in mind, there are people who can't control their emotions and will fight this trend. If $DJT is above $35, the risk is higher. Human's inability to get passed who is behind this and the people supporting it is in and of itself a major catalyst for a squeeze.
Just a reminder - many of the Fed's most important measures of underlying inflationary momentum are trending lower... Cuts aren't off the table
Where is the stress in credit? Leveraged loans down <0.5% from peak Not what you would expect if we're headed into economic turmoil
For folks saying "everyone is bullish"... The three-week rate-of-change increase we *just* saw in the VIX was the largest since the October '23 low And before that, the October '22 low We know *quantitatively* that investors are skittish
Yesterday, the Philly Fed posted blow-out manufacturing growth in its April report Headline PMI increased from 3.2 ➡️ 15.5 Implies the ISM number increasing to 53.1 for April Haven't heard many folks talking about this...
Is it for the same reasons they haven’t been buying Treasury Bonds? @InvictusMacro
Why aren't investors buying defensives?
Why aren't investors buying defensives?
Was a great show today
$6.4 tr in money market assets, $1.8 tr of which is retail Is this just money waiting to pile into stocks at the right time? Not exactly But, it does have *indirect* implications for the stock market through something called the "rebalancing effect" We discuss it in today's…
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