Josh Nagelberg @JoshN_CP
Joined July 2025-
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Is freeze risk rising as harvest nears? Watch the video for: 1.) County-level avg first 32/30/28°F freeze dates (1981–2024) 2.) ECMWF 15-day probs for 36–30°F lows 3.) Millions of corn/soybean bushels at risk by temp threshold 👉🎥 youtu.be/sJg5H4u0rKE #oatt #Corn #Soybeans
August SST data highlights the extreme North Pacific warmth as the top SST anomaly in the global oceans. In terms of standardized anomalies, the SW Pacific also stands out, especially around NZ. Warmth near Florida is second only to 2023 - not ideal for peak hurricane season.
The September CanSIPS update is available, showing a fairly robust +NAO pattern for winter. The change (to a more positive NAO) from last month's forecast is substantial for Jan-Feb, as we might expect with a stronger La Niña signal emerging recently.
IL corn prod wghtd precip is above nrml over the past 30 days, driven by ~3 precip events in mid to late July. However, the past 14 days have been notably dry—corn growing areas in IL received only ~50% of nrml precip. AIFS-ENS fcsts show below nrml precip in Week 1. #oatt
Over the next 2 weeks, the #corn belt is going to be HOT. The 14-day GEFS & ECMWF both fcst the corn prod wghtd avg tmp to be >4°F above nrml. And... during week 3 and 4, the GEFS shows an increased likelihood of above nrml temps within the corn belt. #oatt #AgWx #Agriculture
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Russia's Northern Sea Route is just about open, judging from the NSIDC sea ice index. It's very early, but not quite as early as some recent years. In contrast, the Alaska side (Beaufort Sea) has a lot of ice - the most since 2006, and comparable to the normal of the 1980s/90s.
In the corn crop commentary that is sent to customers, we discussed that the previous corn yield rising trend has been brought to a halt by the stormy wx pattern over the past 2 wks. The decline in S MN and N IA is related to the result of hvy rains, high humidity, and low evap.
The August @CopernicusECMWF C3S data will include an upgrade to the Italian CMCC model. August seasonal skill is improved for 12 of 14 Northern Hemisphere atmospheric indices that we track (NAO etc). This may be related to improved QBO skill, previously a weakness for CMCC.
It wasn't quite a derecho, but lots of the Corn Belt took it on the chin yesterday. Here's more info on who was impacted.
It wasn't quite a derecho, but lots of the Corn Belt took it on the chin yesterday. Here's more info on who was impacted.
Grain traders must see this post and corresponding research done with the 2020 IA derecho!
Grain traders must see this post and corresponding research done with the 2020 IA derecho!
Sean Sublette previews Monday's ECMWF: up to 90% probs of above nrml temps in the southern #Corn Belt/SE, while the Dakotas and #Wheat Belt lean cooler. A wetter signal likely from STL into the Wheat Belt. 📺Watch the full update: youtu.be/vbZqXn_IHjk #AgWeather #oatt #AgWx
Tracking mid-high latitude marine heatwaves: 2023-2025 have all seen >3°C SST anomalies briefly covering over 4% of N Hemisphere oceans in summer (not observed in 1981-2022). This year's "heatwave" emerged earlier than 2023 and 2024. Where to from here?
We’ve been running our “Forecast of the Forecast” since late May—and it’s proving itself. Friday’s forecast anticipated today’s #agwx fcst with impressive accuracy. Today’s video validates that performance & shows elevated heat risk over the next 2 wks: youtu.be/Ko_EZJ3iKYQ
📈 Heat risk potential builds across major #corn regions. Today's ECMWF fcst of the fcst shows an 80–90% probability of above-normal temps for IA, IL & IN. Week 2 warm nights during peak pollination could amplify yield stress and market sensitivity. 🎥 youtu.be/vQUXOot-y7k
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