Nick Rowe @MacRoweNick

Amateur Mechanic. Professional Economist (retired). Better at fixing cars, because I can usually figure out what the designer intended. worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_can… Near Ottawa Joined October 2015

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Nick Rowe @MacRoweNick

6 months ago

The more powerful the Stock Market Vigilantes think they are, the less the stock market will fall. Because they will expect a higher probability of a bigger and quicker policy reversal.

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Nick Rowe @MacRoweNick

7 months ago

My *hunch* is that AI will raise the returns to Land. If AI increases total output (= total income), that extra income has to go somewhere. If AI is a substitute for human capital, and makes non-human capital cheaper to produce, then increased returns to Land seem plausible.

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Nick Rowe @MacRoweNick

7 months ago

Suppose the only economic model you could remember is the simple Keynesian Cross model you learned in undergrad in the late 1960's. Then if the US had a trade deficit with Canada, you really would believe that the US is subsidising Canada.

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Nick Rowe @MacRoweNick

7 months ago

Normies: Tariffs may cause inflation, and inflation lowers our real incomes. Economists: Tariffs lower our real incomes. And tariffs may cause inflation (depending on monetary policy, and on nominal rigidities). (With an NGDP target, economists would talk more like normies.)

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Nick Rowe @MacRoweNick

8 months ago

If a tax causes a bigger fall in congestion than drivers expected, there should be a (partial) "rebound effect" (lower congestion encourages more drivers). Converging to equilibrium takes time. Rational expectations =/= perfect foresight, with a new policy. Data says?

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Stephen Gordon @stephenfgordon

9 months ago

Krugman gave a huge boost to Worthwhile Canadian Initiative's visibility back in the day, linking often to @MacRoweNick's posts - and once even linking to the discussion in the comments of one of Nick's posts.

Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion

9 months ago

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Nick Rowe @MacRoweNick

10 months ago

"The costs of higher inflation" is reasoning from a price change. What causes that higher inflation? What policies could have prevented it? "The costs of a higher inflation *target*" answers those questions.

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Nick Rowe @MacRoweNick

11 months ago

A Phillips Curve for unemployed apartments:

Jay Parsons @jayparsons

11 months ago

A Phillips Curve for unemployed apartments:

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Nick Rowe @MacRoweNick

11 months ago

You aren't supposed to treat an ordinal variable as cardinal. OK. But if you have no idea whether the relationship is linear (and we usually don't), does it matter? Aren't these equivalent?