Macro Avalanche @MacroAvalanche

平心 Hong Kong Joined July 2024

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Macro Avalanche @MacroAvalanche

2 days ago

Grateful to all

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Macro Avalanche @MacroAvalanche

3 days ago

ADP missed expectations and it was an extremely poor number. If we don't have NFP release this Friday, ADP will be what the Fed watches. Dollar dumped on the data release as markets price in more cuts in the future. We will be having PMI release in less than an hour. This will…

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Macro Avalanche @MacroAvalanche

5 days ago

Concludes September and ready for Uptober 📈

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Macro Avalanche @MacroAvalanche

a week ago

Last week’s strong retail sales number suggests the economy isn’t as weak as it looks, at least labor market weakness hasn’t influenced consumer spending significantly. Now we had another strong initial jobless claims and GDP. Next week’s NFP will decide whether DXY is to…

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𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 @EffMktHype

2 weeks ago

So it turns out the decline in jobless claims yesterday was due to a technical error from North Carolina and it should be about 19,000 higher. Takes a little bit of the sting out of yesterday, though bonds have yet to react

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The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

2 weeks ago

SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (9/17/2025): 1. Fed cuts rates by 25 bps in first rate cut of 2025 2. Median projection shows 50 bps in additional rate cuts for 2025 3. Governor Miran dissents in favor of 50 bps cut today 4. Fed says downside risks to employment have risen 5. 6 Fed…

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Macro Avalanche @MacroAvalanche

3 weeks ago

At the Jackson Hole meeting, Powell expressed a willingness to prioritize economic growth over inflation risks, viewing the recent tariff pressures on prices as a likely one-time shock rather than a sustained rebound. This asymmetry of risks makes the Fed more inclined to…

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Polymarket @Polymarket

3 weeks ago

BREAKING: Nepal elects interim Prime Minister via Discord vote, after Gen Z overthrew the government.

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Macro Avalanche @MacroAvalanche

4 weeks ago

Trader lifestyle. I see the quants, where are the Lambos?

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Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno

4 weeks ago

Whether you like it or not, the U.S. economy is mostly surprising to the upside of expectations. We continue to see the 'tariffs will cause a recession' narrative shift as the goalposts keep moving

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Macro Avalanche @MacroAvalanche

4 weeks ago

Good take

Alessio @AlessioTMAD

4 weeks ago

Good take

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Macro Avalanche @MacroAvalanche

4 weeks ago

In this market regime, the cleanest trade is to allocate long metals and equity indices at the same time, along with cautiously bearish USD. Would be better-off in EVERY scenario.