Prolumine @Prolumen
Once you’ve seen the world in the form of flows, gradients, and complex systems, it’s impossible to go back. prolumine.net Joined March 2020-
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Read: renewables projects are marginal and only become viable when capital is cheap enough.
Read: renewables projects are marginal and only become viable when capital is cheap enough.
China is Putin's lifeline. Without all the goods going from China to Russia directly and indirectly, there would be no war in Ukraine. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made clear what side China stands on. It isn't the side of Western democracies and sanctity of human life...
Free-market capitalism means that markets are free from regulation but does not rule out government support. In fact, government support is central to the free-market argument: the government needs to be all-in on business to think free-markets are a good idea at all.
Free-market capitalism means that markets are free from regulation but does not rule out government support. In fact, government support is central to the free-market argument: the government needs to be all-in on business to think free-markets are a good idea at all.
I trained as a generalist investor. I realised after a few years what many of my colleagues hadn’t: you can’t hide between a ‘generalist’ label and call it a day. True generalists are specialists in many, many areas and they never stop specialising in more and more areas.
I trained as a generalist investor. I realised after a few years what many of my colleagues hadn’t: you can’t hide between a ‘generalist’ label and call it a day. True generalists are specialists in many, many areas and they never stop specialising in more and more areas.
This chart suggests that a Chinese-Saudi-Arabian economic alliance has been a long time in the making. We should wonder what Saudi oil and money can do once in orbit with a Sino-Russian strategic alliance.
This chart suggests that a Chinese-Saudi-Arabian economic alliance has been a long time in the making. We should wonder what Saudi oil and money can do once in orbit with a Sino-Russian strategic alliance.
Reading tweets in reference to the US Republican debate suggests that the Democrats’ biggest weakness is reason. The 2024 election will be won not through reasoned argumentation or fact-checking but gut-feeling. And the gut knows no facts—only visceral emotions.
Everything we think we know about inflation and its drivers is wrong. There is another perspective: that declining inflation is a late-stage signal of a coming recession.
Everything we think we know about inflation and its drivers is wrong. There is another perspective: that declining inflation is a late-stage signal of a coming recession.
This is what a good metaphysic (philosophical matrix) for an investor looks like: decide what metric you want to optimise and align fully with that ideal. Size and greatness are not the same but often diametrically opposite.
This is what a good metaphysic (philosophical matrix) for an investor looks like: decide what metric you want to optimise and align fully with that ideal. Size and greatness are not the same but often diametrically opposite.
If we think k about US-China/Russia relations from a US/economic perspective, Sino-Russian strategy will never make sense. That is the West’s greatest weakness, that we’re blind to strategies other than our own.
If we think k about US-China/Russia relations from a US/economic perspective, Sino-Russian strategy will never make sense. That is the West’s greatest weakness, that we’re blind to strategies other than our own.
Debt trajectories will continue to steepen for as long as there is an expectation (social and cultural) that economies and tech will continue to grow. Only countries and governments that recognise and embrace 21st century “degrowth” will be motivated to reduce debt ratios.
Debt trajectories will continue to steepen for as long as there is an expectation (social and cultural) that economies and tech will continue to grow. Only countries and governments that recognise and embrace 21st century “degrowth” will be motivated to reduce debt ratios.
The dollar is also up over the past 10 years because its stock market has been very strong over that period. Just look at what happened to the dollar after the dot com bust and the GFC and consider what’s going to happen once NVIDIA and Microsoft no longer hold the NASDAQ.
The dollar is also up over the past 10 years because its stock market has been very strong over that period. Just look at what happened to the dollar after the dot com bust and the GFC and consider what’s going to happen once NVIDIA and Microsoft no longer hold the NASDAQ.
It’s not Russia or the EU that is the problem. The problem is that nobody is true to their principles any more. Instead, everything has been surrendered to the pursuit of profit. It’s only when profit ceases to be primary that we’ll see the real moral progress against Russia.
It’s not Russia or the EU that is the problem. The problem is that nobody is true to their principles any more. Instead, everything has been surrendered to the pursuit of profit. It’s only when profit ceases to be primary that we’ll see the real moral progress against Russia.
This old technology is exciting, but its impact will be marginal. Our excitement over marginal inventions like these should alert us to the lack of less-marginal innovation that’s out there.
This old technology is exciting, but its impact will be marginal. Our excitement over marginal inventions like these should alert us to the lack of less-marginal innovation that’s out there.
Fossil fuels, mechanization, and the pursuit of profit are all tied together in a complicated complex of realities and ideas that will be a rats’ nest to untangle. One can’t happen in isolation. If one part moves, the others will need to move too.
Fossil fuels, mechanization, and the pursuit of profit are all tied together in a complicated complex of realities and ideas that will be a rats’ nest to untangle. One can’t happen in isolation. If one part moves, the others will need to move too.
The more capital becomes concentrated in the top-tier, the more unstable the entire system becomes. This table tracks a progressive fragility that has developed in the most crucial financial system in the world. When this house of cards falls, the impact will be felt by everyone.
The more capital becomes concentrated in the top-tier, the more unstable the entire system becomes. This table tracks a progressive fragility that has developed in the most crucial financial system in the world. When this house of cards falls, the impact will be felt by everyone.
It’s been predicted since the 1950s that the world will split up into two blocs: the capitalist west and the communist east. Companies like Tesla are choosing sides—whether they are aware of it or not.
It’s been predicted since the 1950s that the world will split up into two blocs: the capitalist west and the communist east. Companies like Tesla are choosing sides—whether they are aware of it or not.
The real problem isn’t that Chinese manufactures have figured out that lower prices = sales, but that this is how the market for semiconductors works. If we want to prophecy global supply chains, we need to help companies prioritize more metrics than pure profit.
The real problem isn’t that Chinese manufactures have figured out that lower prices = sales, but that this is how the market for semiconductors works. If we want to prophecy global supply chains, we need to help companies prioritize more metrics than pure profit.
Investors park their capital where it’s thought to be safe. The more risk-averse investors become, the larger the discrepancy between large-caps and small-/mid-caps—until investors lose faith in large-caps altogether.
Investors park their capital where it’s thought to be safe. The more risk-averse investors become, the larger the discrepancy between large-caps and small-/mid-caps—until investors lose faith in large-caps altogether.
Charts like this track the rise (and eventually, fall) of the financialisation of asset-management. It’s been on a structural upswing since the deregulation of the 1980s, but there’s not a lot of steam left in the world financial engine, and it will eventually start to run dry.
Charts like this track the rise (and eventually, fall) of the financialisation of asset-management. It’s been on a structural upswing since the deregulation of the 1980s, but there’s not a lot of steam left in the world financial engine, and it will eventually start to run dry.
Unless we’re willing to cut down on consumption, coal is the way forward. The future will run on coal and our consumption patterns will determine how much coal will be burned.
Unless we’re willing to cut down on consumption, coal is the way forward. The future will run on coal and our consumption patterns will determine how much coal will be burned.
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