US stock futures jumped and the Dollar strengthened after President Donald Trump's global tariffs were deemed illegal and blocked by the US trade court.
Contracts for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained 1.5% and 1.7% respectively, while shares in Nvidia rose over 5% in post-market…
There is so much Fear out There
S&P 500 forward PE - Recession Periods
2025: 19.9x (current)
vs.
2020: 13.4x
2002: 12.8x
1990: 10.1x
2008: 8.9x
1980: 6.5x
1982: 6.0x
With @bcaresearch
*Price to earnings.
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 19.0.
This P/E ratio is below the 5-year average (19.9) but above the 10-year average (18.3) @FactSet
Long-term borrowing costs in the US have surged to the highest since January 2022 versus short-term rates. The key question is why. Is it because of expected inflation? China selling its Treasury holdings? Loss of American exceptionalism? Or just fund leverage unwinding.
Bloomberg comes out bearish on the Trump walk back.
Average effective tariff rates are now 24% from 27% this morning.
Still massively anti growth, pro inflation, and anti risk assets.
Wall Street will need further deescalation to sustainably rally.
Up to an hour ago, there was a debate on what would convince the US Administration to opt for some type of pause on tariffs.
Would it be Congress, the President's advisors, business leaders, the legal system, markets, or something else?
We got the answer today:
It's the…
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