Stone & McCarthy @StoneMcCarthy
An Oxford Economics Company. Independent Economic Research Since 1989 smra.com Visit our website Joined August 2009-
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What is the US economic outlook under President #Biden in 2021? Our US Chief Economist @GregDaco shares with you the 3 keys themes for the US economy post #Elections. Watch his analysis to find out more. #uselection2020 #joebiden
Earlier this week, one of my close friends died. I wrote this remembrance of him for Jalopnik. Thanks @Rory_Carroll, @TheErinMarquis and Norman Mayersohn for getting this out there, and @bypatrickgeorge who had greenlit my first essay on him in ‘18 + @robbholland3 for Sebring
Earlier this week, one of my close friends died. I wrote this remembrance of him for Jalopnik. Thanks @Rory_Carroll, @TheErinMarquis and Norman Mayersohn for getting this out there, and @bypatrickgeorge who had greenlit my first essay on him in ‘18 + @robbholland3 for Sebring
Trading Today: US Import prices, claims, 30-year auction, Treasury budget statement. O/N flows in Treasuries were thin ahead of ECB oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ…
Trading Today: Non-farm payrolls, U of M sentiment, inventories. Treasuries mixed ahead of payroll data oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ…
The trade deficit grew more than expected in October. Nominal exports shrunk for a fourth time in 5 months, while imports rose. Moderating global momentum, the stronger dollar,and protectionist trade policies will keep weighing on exports in the near-term. oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ…
Trading Today: Packed calendar to follow Wednesday’s market close. Treasuries rallied in Asia O/N but the gains sparked profit-taking in European trading oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ…
Trading Today: Income and PCE, claims, pending home sales, minutes. Treasuries higher O/N with 10-year dipping below 3% before profit taking kicked in oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ…
One of the world's biggest real estate investors is bullish on U.S. housing. bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
We flagged this possibility early in October: oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ… Republicans: Ram Through the USMCA Before the Dems Take Over tws.io/2FBglsX
US #JobsReport: stronger-than-expected 250k jobs in October w/ net revisions flat. #Wage growth breaches 3% for 1st time since mid-2009 at 3.1% y/y w/ 0.2% m/m rise in #Wages. U-3 unemployment rate steady 3.7% (low since 1969) & labor force participation rate +0.2ppt to 62.9%
Trading Today: Employment Friday, plus trade and factory orders. O/N action in Treasuries driven by Trump tweets on trade oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ…
Corporate Market Summary for Wednesday: Very active trading;spreads steady,issuance modest oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ…
Trading Today: Productivity, claims, manufacturing PMIs to offer direction. Bear steepening continued in Treasuries in thin O/N trading oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ…
Despite tepid income gains, consumer spending registered a sturdy advance in Sep as consumers dipped into their savings. Headline PCE inflation slowed to 2.0% y/y and core PCE inflation maintained a 2.0% y/y pace for the fifth consecutive month. oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ…
We look for Treasury to borrow $756 billion from non-Fed investors over the next two quarters. The Fed will reduce its Treasury holdings by $168 billion over the next two quarters. oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ…
Details point to weaker #consumer spending ahead: - 3.1% m/m surge in autos won't repeat (#hurricaneFlorence disruption) - spending on services flat w/ -1.4% restaurants & hotel (maybe also #hurricane) - trend for durables 6.4% y/y slowing - trend for services +2.4% y/y moderate
Headline PCE deflator +0.1% & core PCE +0.2% in Sep. Headline inflation cools to 2.0% from 2.2% while core #inflation well anchored at 2.0% (5th consecutive month) --> This reports is "par for the course" for the #Fed --> December rate hike looks likely despite #market volatility
US personal income: little softer than expectd (Sep) but household spending still strong: - disposable income +0.2% - real disp income +0.1% - consumer spending +0.4% - real cons +0.3% - saving rate fell to 6.2% low since Dec17 Real disp income +2.9% y/y supports real spend +3.0%
High yield corporate spreads widest since November 15, 2017. oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ…
Trading Today: Existing home sales, Kaplan and Bostic finish the week. Treasuries zig-zagged overnight but are heading into US trading little changed oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ…
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