Ned Davis Research @NDR_Research
Founded in 1980, NDR is a global provider of independent investment research insights, tools and solutions. ndr.com Sarasota, Florida Joined January 2014-
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Millennials' net worth surged from 2019 to 2022, driven by non-financial assets, especially home values. NDR analysis reveals predictable spending patterns, unlocking investment opportunities in key industries. Read more on our blog: bit.ly/4dlK1Gl #NedDavisResearch
Discover NDR's latest on US Q1 GDP. Though numbers missed expectations, Alejandra Grindal, our Chief Economist offers insight. Get the full interview on our blog: hubs.ly/Q02vB4c60 #USGDP #EconomicNews #NedDavisResearch
Ned Davis Research | Chart of the Week: The relationship between market volatility and equity performance is evolving, especially with the unexpected shifts in the VIX and 10-year Treasury yield. Learn more: hubs.ly/Q02tZh6n0 #NedDavisResearch #Volatility #ACWI #VIX
Check out our podcast! We're on YouTube, Spotify, Apple (hubs.ly/Q02twB950), and our Blog! The latest episode features Alejandra Grindal as she discusses global monetary policy, bank easing cycles and whether there is a bullish case for equities.
@NDR_Research | Chart of the Week | A Positive Sign, For Now: Sentiment indicators like the Daily Trading Sentiment Composite dropping to 47.8, its lowest since Nov. 2023 suggesting a move towards neutrality. Read more: bit.ly/3TWGBB6 #NedDavisResearch #MarketSentiment
Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 has risen by at least 10% in Q1, it typically adds a median of 7.6% over the following nine months, with exceptions like 1987 and 1930. Read more on our blog: bit.ly/3UjIg4Y #NedDavisResearch #Stocks #VOL #Q1
NDR in the News: NDR's Chief U.S. Strategist, Ed Clissold recently spoke with BNN Bloomberg, Ed shares perspectives on stock performance, rate cut expectations and easing cycles. Watch the interview: bit.ly/3VRgmOX #NedDavisResearch #InvestmentResearch #MarketInsights
Bearish Commodities Signal? NDR's Daily Commodity Sentiment Model hits highest level since March 2016. Elevated sentiment isn't bearish, but historically it's worth noting its impact on returns. Click here to learn how to see the signals: bit.ly/3POcDOs #NedDavisResearch
NDR was featured in USA Today, discussing Fed cuts and 401K growth. Despite high valuations, strong earnings continue to drive the rally. Get our work for yourself and request a trial: bit.ly/43IXNyp #NedDavisResearch #EconomicOutlook
In this episode of See the Signals, in honor of International Women’s Day and Women’s History Month, NDR's Chief Economist @AleGrindal discusses trends by women in the labor force. Visit our blog to listen to the full interview here: hubs.ly/Q02r0t_R0
NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal reveals Millennial women's growing impact on the economy with record-high job participation rates globally in a recent report. Read more: hubs.ly/Q02qV8c-0. (Subscription required) #EconomicImpact #NedDavisResearch
On the Road with NDR: Join the discussion on leveraging the U.S. Election, Rates, and Volatility! Explore Fed rate cuts, NDR sentiment gauges, sector rotations, and more. Secure your spot now! #NedDavisResearch #InvestmentResearch
On the Road with NDR: Joe Kalish, NDR's Chief Macro Strategist, joined Institutional Investor on March 12. He explored managing uncertainties amid inflation, Fed policy, and implications for the bond market. Contact NDR to learn more: bit.ly/4a7zOvj #NedDavisResearch
NDR's @edclissold discusses the impact of the U.S. Presidential Election cycle on the markets, reviews the four-year cycle, how the market may behave this year depending on the election's outcome, and which industries and sectors to watch. Listen here: bit.ly/4aqFZdo
@NDR_Research | Chart of the Week | Housing Starts Rebound; Builder Confidence Improves. We expect to see even stronger activity this spring as sentiment continues to reflect "a notable improvement in builder confidence". To learn more: bit.ly/3Vq3Cig
"The push towards a carbon free energy sector, has gained momentum due to a series of factors which combined will influence and alter the way the world produces, refines, transports, and consumes commodities." noted Matt Bauer, CFA in a recent pub. #NedDavisResearch
Major benchmark indices are off to a strong start in 2024. From their October lows the S&P, Dow Industrials, and NASDAQ are up 19%+ to all-time highs. View additional insights on our Chart of the Week, click here - bit.ly/3VcAhHQ #NedDavisResearch #InvestmentResearch
In honor of International Women's Day we are excited to present MaryEllen Mancini, SPARCC Vice President of Philanthropy, who joined us today! We are proud to support the work they do in our community. Thank you for visiting with us MaryEllen! #SPARCC #InternationalWomensDay
You are cordially invited to join us during NDR’s Broadcast Replay: The 2024 Election Handbook on Thursday, 7 March @10AM ET with @edclissold, Chief US Strategist and @rob_adersonn US Sector Strategist Register here: bit.ly/3wCJlvj
NDR In The News: Alejandra Grindal, NDR’s Chief Economist, gave an instant reaction to the Q4 GDP report in an interview with BNN Bloomberg. Follow this link for the full interview. hubs.ly/Q02mMQx30
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@NDR_Research Trading Places, 1984 One of my Christmas favorites!
The @NDR_Research daily trading sentiment composite is approaching 20-year highs showing the bulls are out in full force. Two points on this type of indicator: 1) go with the flow until it reaches an extreme and reverses. 2) useful when determining when to put new cash to work.
Breadth has materially improved, but mega-cap Growth has continued to lead. However, sentiment may be nearing an extreme. The combined market cap of eight tech-related stocks has surpassed the combined market cap of Energy, Materials, Industrials, Financials, and Real Estate.
You really don't want companies with negative earnings when the economy is slowing down. We're getting more interested in small caps, but only if they have positive cash flows. More great work from Rob Anderson @NDR_Research. @_rob_anderson
As the Nasdaq has rallied this year, fundamentals for some of the smaller issues have weakened. Almost 60% of the stocks in the composite have negative EPS over the last 12 months, a record going back to 1981.
All S&P 500 sectors finished June with gains. That's a departure from the first five months of the year where only Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary were in positive territory. @NDR_Research
Appreciate the chance to talk markets with @RomaineBostick and @scarletfu. We covered the Fed, the broadening rally, the NDX rebalance, and the upcoming earning season. Interview starts at 1:20 mark. @NDR_Research bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
A factor that could work in the Energy sector's favor during the next recession is its improved financial position as result of friendlier shareholder policies. The sector's net debt to CF ratio is near record lows and interest coverage ratio near record highs. 1/3 @NDR_Research
The sector has been way more shareholder friendly this cycle, with records set for dividends, repurchases, and debt reduction. 2/3
The sector's total shareholder yield is at its highest level since the mid-1980s and more than double every sector except Communication Services. 3/3
The @NDR_Research Credit Conditions Index shows Business and Consumer credit conditions hovering above the 50 mark. A move below 50 would be concerning. Historically, the current level of 59.5 is consistent with 2.8% annual growth in the U.S. Coincident Index. Update in ~2 weeks.
Some weekend reading 📚 by Ned Davis from @NDR_Research.
Video: What Does U.S. Labor Data Mean for Equities? While strong jobs numbers are often a bad omen for stocks, there’s more to consider, says @NDR_Research's Alejandra Grindal. spr.ly/6010OF4Rs
The @NDR_Research Earnings Model employs myriad indicators to assess the corporate earnings landscape. Currently, the model shows earnings are still under pressure. However, note that when the model reverses from low levels, it typically indicates the bottom for earnings is in.
Appreciate the chance to discuss our 2H outlook with @RomaineBostick and @scarletfu. We covered how far the rally could go, the Fed, market breadth and which styles and sectors could lead. Starts at the 1:23 mark. @NDR_Research bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
Joe Kalish's (@NDR_Research) interesting take on the Treasury's cash balances: Expect a "large amount of T-bill issuance to replenish the Treasury's coffers. But, the rise in the TGA should be offset by a similar drop in the RRP, resulting in little change in economic liquidity."
Joe Kalish of @NDR_Research says a shallow recession is coming, and with it greater volatility for the range-bound market; @IBD_ECarson on the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and Matt King of @kingwealthadv talks funds & ETFs in the moneylifeshow.libsyn.com/ndrs-kalish-re…
The last three rallies hit resistance as the @NDR_Research Daily Trading Sentiment Composite peaked at 79, 77, and 87. Current level is 70. Our Catastrophic Stop Model is indicating more stress in the system at just 43.6% bullish. We're getting more cautious.
After a few days of violent mean reversion, a small/large🧵: Small/large was in a choppy uptrend until the regional banking crisis. The Russell 2000 suffered a 10.9% drawdown, >2x the Russell 1000. Importantly, R2/R1 did not break the March 2020 pandemic lows. @NDR_Research 1/7
One of the reasons the rally from the October low doesn't feel like The Bottom is that several Value sectors haven't been participating. If the low holds, no bull market will have seen weaker returns from Energy, Financials, and Real Estate through the first eight months.
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