Senior Investment Strategist at Gate City Investment Services.
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member SIPC https://t.co/4V6GweiJAm. Mapleton, NDJoined April 2024
"Both tariff rates and the proportion of foreign-born workers in the labor force have already moved dramatically, in a way that didn’t happen under Trump 1.0."
Pictet via @johnauthers
"Historically, since 1929, quarters with 20+ record highs have typically led to further gains over the following year: the S&P 500 rose 6.3% on average and advanced 63% of the time."
@LarryAdamRJ
"Traditional measures show U.S. equity valuations are above average. Where they settle will depend on how the economic transformation underway plays out. We believe AI-led productivity gains could boost earnings growth."
@BlackRock
For the first half of this year, layoffs were running higher than in prior years. But since July, that trend has flipped — layoffs have dropped sharply and are now running below 2023 and 2024 levels.
Ironically, that July/August turning point was exactly when investors started…
Upward Pressure on Inflation From the Lower Dollar -Torsten at Apollo.
Of course, the dollar is precisely unchanged since April 21. More on this tk on @StockCharts
"It's helpful to look at the S&P compared to its 200-day moving average. The current number ... is at 10%, but that's not when we've seen local tops. We've generally seen local tops when this number is somewhere between 13% an 15% ... that would imply 6,950."
@fundstrat
A good analogy for a government shutdown is fasting.
Shutting down a little while (less than a week in this case) is not harmful and may be beneficial (not unlike a blizzard shutting down a city for a few days).
If it goes on longer (a week to a month), it can accumulate into…
Investors are taking massive profits:
Professional, retail, and hedge fund investors sold -$3.8 billion in US equities last week.
Institutional investors sold -$1.4 billion, reversing to net selling for the first time in 3 months.
This brings down the 4-week average of buying…
"Look at the S&P 500’s performance so far this decade in terms of bullion (by dividing the index value by the gold price) and stocks have actually lost ground."
@johnauthers
Since 2019 the S&P 500 is up 125%.
76% of that is coming from earnings growth and 19% from dividends.
No, this isn't a bubble, this rally is justified from strong earnings growth.
Combining the two, it's clear the economy's recent resilience is coming from the recent ramp-up in business investment in software and technology, which contributed an average of more than 1%-pt to real GDP growth in Q1 and Q2.
🧵 (1/8) My new working paper with Maurice Obstfeld, “Tariffs as Fiscal Policy”, was just posted today @PIIE. Within, we evaluate the new role that tariffs are playing in the US economy.
From Michael Cembalest:
AI related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022
This is one for the history books
assets.jpmprivatebank.com/content/dam/jp…
New home sales ran much stronger than expected in August, rising 20.5% MoM. With sales this strong, it is curious why builder sentiment remains in the basement. At any rate, completed units for sale continue to rise and this means slack in single-family continues to build.
Want to make your favorite perma-bear mad? 🐻
The S&P 500 is about to be up five months in a row.
A year after 5 month win streaks? Higher 28 out of 30 times and up 12.6% on avg. 🐂
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369K Followers 3K FollowingSenior ETF Analyst for @Bloomberg. Dad. Rutgers grad. Gen X-er. Author of "The Institutional ETF Toolbox" & "The Bogle Effect.” Co-host of Trillions & ETF IQ.
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Lead PM for BINC, BSIIX, MALOX, MAWIX
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