Tipswatch @TipsWatch
Talking about Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, plus I Bonds and Treasurys in general, on the https://t.co/eKll4hxO6k site, since March 2011. tipswatch.com Joined October 2013-
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Tipswatch retweeted
Negative job growth in June ends the current streak of monthly payroll gains at 53 months, the second longest on record (but well shy of the streak of 113 months that ended when Covid hit in 2020).
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The latest 5-year TIPS is trading this morning with a real yield of 1.08%, below the Series I Savings Bond's fixed rate of 1.10%. We haven't seen this since pandemic-era chaos.
Now you can accurately price in a Fed rate cut next week. Probably 25 basis points, but who knows?
Now you can accurately price in a Fed rate cut next week. Probably 25 basis points, but who knows?
Today's T-bill auction results: 4-week, investment rate of 4.247%, down from 4.318% last week. 8-week, investment rate of 4.184%, down from 4.230% last week.
Today's T-bill auction result: 17-week, investment rate of 4.073%, down from 4.131% last week. That is 24 basis points below the current effective federal funds rate of 4.31%. One cut is now priced in.
I just posted my forecast for the Series I Savings Bond's fixed-rate reset on Nov. 1. My conclusion: Going down. tipswatch.com/2025/09/02/for…
Ray Dalio is warning of a "debt-induced heart attack" for the U.S. within three years, triggered by shrinking tax revenues and soaring interest rates. Worth considering, at least: fortune.com/2025/09/02/ray…
An inflation surge could be coming in early 2026, triggered by the effect of ‘big beautiful’ tax refund checks. tipswatch.com/2025/08/30/an-…
PCE inflation has been remarkably stable (and generally too high, especially for core) for a full year.
PCE inflation has been remarkably stable (and generally too high, especially for core) for a full year.
I know it doesn't work this way, but no matter the politics, everyone should stand behind an independent Federal Reserve. The conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board agrees ...
I know it doesn't work this way, but no matter the politics, everyone should stand behind an independent Federal Reserve. The conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board agrees ...
JP Morgan's David Kelly sees a surge in inflation early next year, when many Americans will get unusually large federal tax refunds. W2 withholding has not changed despite no tax on tips and overtime and other breaks. Refunds could total $110 billion, a huge economic stimulus and…
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