NOTE: US administration need for 25/26 boom & bubble as easiest path to reverse path of US debt & deficit trends, why US$ ecular bear is clean investment theme into 2026...
NOTE: POLÍTICA DO FED: na minha opinião 1 corte do Fed em Sept está selado ''vejo pouca probabilidade que seja de 50bps''; as taxas dos fundos do Fed estão mais próximas da visão do Fed de neutras e tarifas + medidas baseadas em pesquisas de expectativas de inflação...
Figure 1: Shifts in global treaty alignment: UK vs US pre-WWI
Figure 2: US vs China today
Countries are coloured in red if they signed more treaties with China and blue if they signed more with the US. “NA” in case no treaties were signed in that decade
.@POTUS made clear that his administration will hold accountable foreign nationals who are responsible for censorship of protected expression in the United States. Brazilian Supreme Federal Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes's political witch hunt against Jair Bolsonaro created a…
[...] if CW correct "Fed cuts, yields 4%, soft landing"... leverage the winner; but treasuries the winner if "Fed cuts, hard landing, yields 3%", and commodities winner if "Fed cuts, no landing yields 5%".
- M. Hartnett
EM local bonds are outperforming EM sovereign debt, capitalizing on (a) the U.S. policy uncertainty/doubts about the U.S. exceptionalism; and (b) the realization that the inflationary impact from tariffs can be lower in EM (which opens room for rate cuts)
The Hidden Risk Beneath the U.S.–China Tariff War: It’s Not Just Inflation
At first glance, surging tariffs on China seem like a simple story: higher prices for imported goods, higher costs for U.S. consumers and manufacturers. But beneath the surface, the real danger is far…
The Hidden Risk Beneath the U.S.–China Tariff War: It’s Not Just Inflation
At first glance, surging tariffs on China seem like a simple story: higher prices for imported goods, higher costs for U.S. consumers and manufacturers. But beneath the surface, the real danger is far… https://t.co/xip335AlLz
I encourage you to read my DSR Drumbeats of QT2.0 and place it in context to the upcoming QRA and comments by Cleveland Fed pres Hammack who outright floats the idea of MBS sales and hints at UST duration sales (reverse twist) in her speech just now dampedspring.com/wp-content/upl…
SPECIAL FRIDAY RELEASE
Felix Zulauf usually only speaks to the media 1x per year, but is breaking that rule to provide investors with a key update on his market outlook
What he shares today surprised me
This is a must-watch: youtu.be/dUwgobvt-Jo
Al cierre de hoy cerraré los longs #SPX#SPX500 #ES. Varias cosas: 1) más allá de la bestial ganancia del trade no creo que el rally se termine hoy (es una opinión, me puedo equivocar). Puede extenderse al menos hasta el viernes o semana entrante; 2) este tipo de rallies se dan…
Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off…
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