When you strip away the noise, the market’s message is simple:
“We believe inflation isn’t going away, and paper money is the risky asset.”
That’s a profound shift from the post-2008 world, where the fear was deflation and liquidity.
🇫🇷 While Macron's resignation for now remains much less likely than fresh parliamentary election, more people on the centre-right are suggesting early Presidential election. See also Attal's comments from yesterday evening. This would be the real problem for OATs
🇫🇷 While Macron's resignation for now remains much less likely than fresh parliamentary election, more people on the centre-right are suggesting early Presidential election. See also Attal's comments from yesterday evening. This would be the real problem for OATs
Initial China Golden Week Data Suggest Continued Consumption Weakness: Julius Baer
Data from China's Golden Week holiday so far suggest continuing consumption weakness in the country, Julius Baer says in a research note. Passenger trips for Oct. 1-5 rose 5.4% on year, a slowdown…
In a recently released industry research report, Goldman Sachs pointed out that the supply of T-glass, used in high-end BT substrates (mainly for smartphone SoCs), could face a double-digit percentage shortage over the next several months to quarters. Following the report, shares…
Everyone wants to relocate to Europe: 46% of the UHNWIs are considering relocating to Europe and 50% are considering applying for a European visa in the next five years, with almost 30% interested in investing in a Golden Visa.
These are crazily high numbers. Why Europe?…
We need a new system:
The Fed is running world's largest economy on labor market data that is revised 3 times, suspended for a government shutdown, and then revised lower again a year later by nearly 1 million jobs.
All as the majority of economic data is in a blackout until…
This is incredible:
Venture capitalists have poured a record $192.7 billion into AI startups YTD.
This puts 2025 on track to be the first year where more than 50% of total VC dollars flow into the AI industry.
In the US, AI’s share of venture deals has surpassed 60% over the…
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow says the U.S. is growing at +3.8%.
But Moody’s Analytics finds 22 states + D.C. already in recession, from Washington to Georgia to Massachusetts.
So... are we booming, or breaking?
1/4
For those wondering what gross vs net leverage means...
GROSS LEVERAGE is the total amount of assets a hedge fund has invested, divided by its net asset value (NAV). It represents the overall exposure a fund has to the market, including both long and short positions. A gross…
For those wondering what gross vs net leverage means...
GROSS LEVERAGE is the total amount of assets a hedge fund has invested, divided by its net asset value (NAV). It represents the overall exposure a fund has to the market, including both long and short positions. A gross…
Some new theoretical economics papers looking at the implications of AGI.
These two papers argue that a true AGI-level AI (equivalent to a human genius), if achieved, would eventually displace most human labor and reduce the economic value of remaining human work to near-zero.
off-topic / personal blog post
People don't know my backstory, but the main reason I ended up where I am today is that about a decade ago I wanted to be a super-human programmer. I wanted to make my childhood dream games in a week, not 5 years. I learned VIM, Lisp, Haskell and…
I don’t know what healthcare insiders know, but they know something.
It’s the only sector where insider buying activity is high compared to selling.
Meanwhile, the NDX/XLV ratio is at extreme levels. The signals are here more than ever.
"The Debasement Trade" since COVID:
In USD: NDX up 165%, SPX up 102%, Home prices up 56%.
In gold: NDX up 7%, SPX down 18%, Home prices down 37%.
In BTC: NDX down 78%, SPX down 84%, Home prices down 87%.
I wrote an article selecting the key contents from The Trust Game, a book authored by former and current vice presidents of SK hynix, to explain how Hynix beat Samsung and claimed the throne of HBM.
As an appendix, I also introduce a Korean materials, parts, and equipment…
Over London? Tired of L.A.? Not interested in Paris? The wealthy are moving to this newly vibrant and cosmopolitan Italian city wsj.com/business/milan… via @WSJ
23 Followers 1K FollowingOfficial account of Ray Dalio, founder of
Bridgewater Associates, author of #1 New York Times bestseller 'Principles,' professional mistake maker
17 Followers 1K FollowingOfficial account of Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, author of #1 New York Times bestseller 'Principles, professional mistake maker
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an Author of the'Schulden ohne Sühne?' a book on states' addiction to debt. Pics: https://t.co/Jd1nkUdvrd
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1.8M Followers 91 FollowingOfficial account of Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, author of #1 New York Times bestseller 'Principles,' professional mistake maker
154K Followers 680 FollowingInstitutional Investor. Named a top finance account by BI. Featured on WSJ, FT, Bloomberg. Incoherent ramblings about life, markets, and politics.
34K Followers 3K FollowingQuant Research @Bloomberg, opinions my own. Perpetually curious, but also "incredibly unsophisticated" (according to Chamath Palihapitiya).
47K Followers 464 FollowingSeparate skill from luck. Maximize the former, minimize the latter, using empirical evidence and thinking from first principles. Sister acct: @yogappygappy.
195K Followers 400 FollowingRobert Solow Professor of economics emeritus, MIT,
Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Professor, Paris School of Economics
496K Followers 153 FollowingNobel Laureate. Co-Founder & CEO @GoogleDeepMind - working on AGI. Solving disease @IsomorphicLabs. Trying to understand the fundamental nature of reality.
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1.4M Followers 1K FollowingBuilding @EurekaLabsAI. Previously Director of AI @ Tesla, founding team @ OpenAI, CS231n/PhD @ Stanford. I like to train large deep neural nets.
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348K Followers 320 FollowingInstitute Professor @MIT, @MITEcon. Co-Director of @MITShapingWork. Author of Why Nations Fail, The Narrow Corridor, and Power & Progress.