Hasan Arik @hasanecon
Fedwatcher at @usbank. Views my own. Pre: @PNCbank, @EY_US, @DukeEcon PhD, @LSEEcon linkedin.com/in/hasansadika… Joined August 2014-
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Fatih Karahan is a great choice, don't expect shifts in the policy. Monday will be a regular day.
Rare glimpse into NY Fed's financial SWAT team. Thanks @StevenKelly49
Rare glimpse into NY Fed's financial SWAT team. Thanks @StevenKelly49
Why did this trend start mid-90s? What switched on/off? Is this just globalization taking off in 90s?
Why did this trend start mid-90s? What switched on/off? Is this just globalization taking off in 90s?
We need Lab-grown Impossible Oak asap!
We need Lab-grown Impossible Oak asap!
Maybe we can call it, hear me out, Dollar_v2
Maybe we can call it, hear me out, Dollar_v2
@GeorgeSelgin Sounds like standard promotional methods used extensively in the private sector, George. This is what competition is all about. I’m sure the banks will figure it out.
"Covid" is now completely removed from the #FOMC statement. Russia's "invasion" turned into a "war". Food prices are now explicitly mentioned.
Something must have changed in the US and UK circa 2010 or earlier. There is a visual structural break in the data. This can't be explained away with health care, obesity or your favorite negative trivia about the US. That something slightly impacts FR and CAN as well.
Something must have changed in the US and UK circa 2010 or earlier. There is a visual structural break in the data. This can't be explained away with health care, obesity or your favorite negative trivia about the US. That something slightly impacts FR and CAN as well.
Team Soft Landing looking good...
Team Soft Landing looking good...
PODCAST | ISTANBUL's INFLATION PROBLEM On our latest episode, @SelvaDemiralp explains why the Turkish government is trying to keep interest rates low, even at the cost of leaving inflation unchecked. Listen and subscribe to #AsiaStream: s.nikkei.com/3NtkTzM
Now you see why Twitter management was on board with Musk's offer
People don't get that unemployment hitting 50y lows is actually bad news
People don't get that unemployment hitting 50y lows is actually bad news
For the unemployment rate, good news is bad news at this point. Lower UR = Overheating Don't compare it to pre-pandemic levels; we are at a whole different situation right now. We should leave this "recovery" mindset behind, as the next downturn may be closer than we think.
CBs do print money. QE is literally printing money. And it is "out of thin air". That's the whole point. Reserves in the banking system is money. When CB change the liquidity structure of the system, it is also printing money. I am tired of all this money discussion.
CBs do print money. QE is literally printing money. And it is "out of thin air". That's the whole point. Reserves in the banking system is money. When CB change the liquidity structure of the system, it is also printing money. I am tired of all this money discussion.
Some of what's framed as "shock" here is just post- pandemic recovery. The shock better be calculated vs pre-pandemic levels. Meaning we are not done yet
Some of what's framed as "shock" here is just post- pandemic recovery. The shock better be calculated vs pre-pandemic levels. Meaning we are not done yet
Agreed, and did you notice how they keep silent about inflation nowadays? Now get ready for "Team Soft Landing". That's the next buzzword.
Agreed, and did you notice how they keep silent about inflation nowadays? Now get ready for "Team Soft Landing". That's the next buzzword.
Enflasyonu düşürme konusunda hükümete ne görev düştüğünü Biden çok iyi özetlemiş: 1) Maliyetleri düşürmek 2) Bütçeyi kısmak Dikkat edilirse listede merkez bankasına faiz indirimi çağrısı yapmak yer almıyor. Biden, 17 Nobelli iktisatçının da bu planı onayladığını not etmiş.
Enflasyonu düşürme konusunda hükümete ne görev düştüğünü Biden çok iyi özetlemiş: 1) Maliyetleri düşürmek 2) Bütçeyi kısmak Dikkat edilirse listede merkez bankasına faiz indirimi çağrısı yapmak yer almıyor. Biden, 17 Nobelli iktisatçının da bu planı onayladığını not etmiş.
I think it's great time for Turkey to ask for the swap line with the Fed. As a NATO ally who does its part in helping Ukraine, sanctions hurt Turkey a ton. Current list of 14 CBs can be found here: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
David Andolfatto @dandolfa
32K Followers 2K Following Construction worker turned academic turned central banker turned academic again. Chair, Economics Department @MiamiHerbert University of Miami
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202K Followers 731 Following Professor of Economics, Koc University. Former Economist at the Federal Reserve Board. Ethos Economics and Consulting.
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Make money easily @9RRFAhGwS0ESDQ4
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139 Followers 3K Following I'm new to Twitter accounts so I tried the messaging feature and it's great to meet you.
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9 Followers 95 Following "Life is a song - sing it. Life is a game - play it. Life is a challenge - meet it. Life is a dream - realize it. Life is a sacrifice - offer it. Life is love
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Lewis @ctjlewis
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the beginning of a dr.. @hendrykajha
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DC @stir_hobbyist
161 Followers 202 Following hello anons before I begin let me clarify these rates are not real
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Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem
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32K Followers 2K Following Construction worker turned academic turned central banker turned academic again. Chair, Economics Department @MiamiHerbert University of Miami
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306K Followers 210 Following Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst, previously Chief Economist @IIF and Chief FX Strategist @GoldmanSachs. Opinions are my own. Email: [email protected].
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259K Followers 3K Following Journalist, writing on Turkey and occasionally on the region. E-mail: [email protected] Türkçe için: @ragipsoyluTR
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32K Followers 959 Following Economist at Stanford. Fascinated by exchange rates. Really wanted to be a pilot. Actually, taxes do fund spending.
Bloomberg HT @BloombergHT
1.0M Followers 9 Following Türkiye'nin Ekonomi Haberleri Platformu https://t.co/hxM7cRZufJ https://t.co/KURMbnouIR Canlı Yayın ▶ https://t.co/fdb6SPTIne
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147K Followers 818 Following Burada yazdığım bilgi,yorum ve tavsiyeler, kişisel görüşlerimdir, yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir..! “Facts never supersede the truth..!”
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10K Followers 1K Following Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Greenwich and Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre
Anlaşılır Ekonomi @AnlasEkonomi
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46K Followers 426 Following US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
Mac10 @SuburbanDrone
94K Followers 0 Following Bachelor of Finance 30 years trading experience 17 years blogging experience INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK
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140K Followers 264 Following Speculation is the search for truth in price and time. Not investment advice - just personal views. Blog at https://t.co/DD2iUKbdLz
George Selgin @GeorgeSelgin
27K Followers 657 Following Free-market monetary guy who has lucid moments. Director Emeritus of @CatoCMFA. I promise not to waste our time by saying things you expect me to say.
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18K Followers 2K Following Author of Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology. Professor @FletcherSchool, Kirkpatrick Fellow @AEIfdp
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7K Followers 240 Following Stanford, IBM Res (Math), Citadel, Millennium, Hudson River Trading, future Balyasny. Trying to figure out things. Wrote a book, working on a new one.
Ironsides Macro @barryknapp
9K Followers 657 Following Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. Macroeconomic & public policy strategy I'm not joking. This is my job. Podcast: https://t.co/RDQlWX61FE…
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33K Followers 2K Following Mkt Strategist at @rwbaird and author of “Bull and Baird,” a mkt blog. All tweets are opinion, I do not produce research. Chicago MBA [email protected]
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4K Followers 606 Following Economist @sffed | Applied Micro | Applied Macro | Health Economics | Views expressed here are my own | personal account
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95K Followers 2K Following Contrarian value investor. O&G. Not advice, do not rely, past performance not indicative, positioning may change w/out notice. Likes & r/ts are not endorsements
quantymacro @quantymacro
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3K Followers 1K Following covers the Federal Reserve and the global economy @axios (🇯🇲)
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Slowing Chinese urbanization removes one of the biggest disinflationary forces in the world of the last 20 years.
With pressures still firmly in place for US rates to push higher (decent US growth, inflation still not at target, Fed holding for longer, and much higher Q2 supply) the global ripples of higher yields are set to continue.
I want to shill my four favorite value ratios: NCAV - Net Current Asset Value -- this one is the staple of Graham value investing, looking at current assets minus current liabilities. You usually compare it to market cap. This tells you, at a high level, if a company is very…
I now have made a 3x return on a Japanese net net I bought in early February and I still have no idea what the company does.
Henüz işin başındayız ama olası bir Fed vs dünyanın geri kalanı (yani dolar kuvvetlenmesi ) ayrışmasının tehlikesini 2023 tarihli IMF raporundan bir kaç satışlar paylaşırsam :An appreciation of the US dollar index by 10 percentage points is associated with a decline in real…
Interesting point from Goldman Sachs about the UMich consumer sentiment survey. Online responses more negative? Who woulda thought?
If you are a Bloomberg client please IB or MSG me if you would like a copy of the Excel file for this chart using the API.
Post-pandemic, forecasters' accuracy in predicting Non-Farm Payroll growth has significantly declined (see an earlier post). However, they have largely succeeded in forecasting monthly inflation figures, diminishing the chances of a substantial discrepancy:
Speaking about the US economy is negative terms is just increasingly absurd, the US is experiencing supply side boom and is the only real engine of growth in the global economy. Strong jobs, abundant labor supply, solid productivity, cooling inflation pressures? Goldilocks AF
More than anything, the Fed is motivated to "go" for a soft landing. In last month's SEP, Fed members estimated a rise in inflation (core PCE) and a fall in unemployment. Based on SEPs since 22, we would have expected the Fed to move to one cut in 24 (instead of holding at 3).
I still think we get a cut in June. Disinflation is still on schedule over next few months. Oil rally about done (right when all the generalists and permabulls get loud). And, remember, oil is the main driver of market-based inflation measures (eg cpi swaps - below).
Morgan Stanley mapping out the AI infrastructure value chain.
The extreme focus on consumer spending is perplexing as consumer spending almost never contracts. Real consumer spending does not contract at all in anticipation of a recession and only contracts after a recession is underway in particularly deep recessions.
I have my own 10% rule … #macro #hopE
@MichaelKantro Do you have a preferred employment gauge ? Sahm rule, initial claims or just standard UR?
Exactly what we’ve been arguing: #Profits growth drives hiring. The easing of the labor markets coincided with a profits #recession but profits are now accelerating. (Chart: The Daily Shot @SoberLook)
YARDENI RESEARCH "OUR CHARTS" (March 26, 2024). How does the current bull market compare to the previous 8 so far? Below is one of the Treasure trove of automatically updated charts on yardeni.com. Have a look. Tell us what you think. Suggestions welcomed.…
Research by @seba_hill documents that the descent in US real long-term yields over the past decades can be explained by very narrow time windows around the Fed’s monetary policy meetings. Long-run forward guidance appears to have lowered real bond yields significantly. 17/20
Figured I'd put my thought process on record so I can revisit in a year or two. Not changing my investments based on this since I'm naturally positioned this way. Do your own research. 🧵
Job growth and unemployment trending higher! Let's dig in: 1⃣ Job growth +275k (cons. 200k)⬆️from 229k in Jan 2⃣Private job growth +223k (165k)⬆️from 177k 3⃣2m-revision to job growth -167k 4⃣ U-Rate⬆️to 3.9% (3.7%) from 3.7% 5⃣ AHE m/m⬇️to +0.1% (0.2%) from 0.5% 6⃣ AHE y/y +4.3%…
BREAKING: BLS CLARIFIES THERE IS NO SECRET GROUP OF "SUPER USERS" WITH SPECIAL ACCESS TO NON-PUBLIC INFORMATION
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