Economist, asset allocator (New York Life Investments), tea connoisseur. Views are my own. Likes & retweets are not endorsements.linkedin.com/in/lauren-good… New York, NYJoined September 2022
Happy #Fed week, everyone. Given unrelenting focus on #inflation risk, we expect a final 25 bps this week. What could upset that view? FOMC gets senior bank loan survey data before the meeting... and before we bystanders. If we get a surprise, that data will be why...
Happy #CPI day. Prices decelerating, but looking sticky. The #bond market is now pricing more-or-less what the Fed says it will do: 25 basis points in March and May. Equities, on the other hand, have continued their relief rally; #Fed resolve is being underpriced.
Why not spend an already uncertain year noodling what could disrupt it further? Super cool new disruptive risks piece out from my team: newyorklifeinvestments.com/assets/documen…
Central banking people: colleagues at @MacKayShields conducted groundbreaking research on whether Fed programs have permanently repriced credit. Takeaways (so far): the Fed put is dead, but euro area credit appears repriced. Stellar convo here: buzzsprout.com/942931/11914349
Black swan alert. Too soon to tell, but we just put together our list of risks that could break consensus in 2023. Yesterday, the #BoJ beat us to it. Here is an excerpt from our piece, discussing what materialized today and exploring the ripple effects it may have.
"I'm going to be looking for a couple of very specific things out of tomorrow to determine whether the [Fed] policy path ahead has shifted as a result of today's CPI report," says @NYLInvestments' Lauren Goodwin.
Here's what Lauren's keeping her eye on:
I don't typically use Twitter as an interview hub but this one from yesterday was one of my favorites ever. Thanks @JonErlichman for the stellar questions. bnnbloomberg.ca/video/despite-…
As we look ahead to 2023, one thing appears certain: this cycle will look very different from the last. Investors’ allocations may need to shift in response. Here we share some all-weather strategies and our high-conviction ideas for as the cycle turns. newyorklifeinvestments.com/insights/2023-…
Even for this DC alum, our latest Market Matters guests dropped some serious policy knowledge. SO much fun. Thanks for joining, ladies. @JenGShapiro@JuliaCHermann Listen here or wherever you pod: buzzsprout.com/942931/11713461
Headed into @CNBC to talk stocks with @ScottWapnerCNBC. It’s been a quarter of transition equities - top line still strong, but slowing and with increasing bottom line pressure.
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