The Mag 7 is currently ~35% of the SPX.
For those who say Big Tech can’t possibly get any bigger…
Railroads were 63% of the U.S. Stock Market in 1881.
$NVDA $MSFT $META $GOOG $AAPL $TSLA $AMZN
It all smells so weird. I give indicators on the trend, momentum, financial conditions, central bank impulse still more weight , but dudes this is some tricky stuff going forward. Anybody claiming recession risk is way overblown, better come up with some decent data to back it up
And then S&P homebuilder stocks forward operating margin at 12.4%ish in a strong downturn from 15%ish which is below 3 year linear trend but still above 10%ish level where they started firing people 2007
Noteworthy as well is that Specialty Trade Contractors (carpenters, plumbing,...) is already shedding jobs on the 3-month ma whereas residential construction is still positive on the 3-month ma. The whole thing is only 2%ish of job market we know, but still mehhh
Just one indicator, but building permits touching and falling to their 2-year moving lows is not a particularly good sign. lol. Historically, a sustained drop in permits below their prior two-year low has preceded many bear markets, except for the rapid crashes in 1987/Covid
It's amazing how closely S&P tracks the post-presidential cycle of 2025. 12-month post presidential cycle since 1928 is:
- Rally Nov - Feb
- post-election fatigue/first policy reactions: March/April
- Hard rally May - august
- heavier correction again Sept - Oct
Some of the big macro guys here so transparent they trying to express a market view at ALL times. Every day, every week, every month, every year. It’s insane. Can’t work. Never works.
People acting as if they still understand what the hell is going on. Technicals point to renewed bull market. Positioning contrarian bullish. Leading soft data points to heavy recession. Leading hard indicators still ok. Geopolitics a shitshow Look it’s ok to say I don’t know.
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