Kevin Fickle @mmgeorge17
Acquiring Internet Resistant Retail Shopping Centers https://t.co/9mNlVFHns7 San Francisco, CA Joined October 2023-
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Our shopping center preference: real estate fundamentals (I.E. location) over credit of tenant. The average lifespan of a small business is 8.5 years. The average lifespan of US companies on the S&P 500 is 15 years (according to EY).
When underwriting retail shopping center rents from assets purchased between 2005 and 2008, we often observe those rents are higher than today’s market rates. This serves as a reminder that rents do not always increase. Moreover, with national vacancy rates below 5% and…
Aztec Nation is behind you, @XSchauffele! #OlympiansMadeHere
Some of the best retail businesses don’t focus on excess profits to shareholders. I.E. Costco and Trader Joe’s focus on passing savings to customers which creates an incredible competitive moat at scale. Counterintuitive, but customer focus over shareholder profits allows them…
Fitch on Commercial Real Estate: Fund managers are wrong — it's not over 👇 - Maintains "deteriorating outlook" on office sector - Expects CMBS delinquency to reach 11% in 2025 - Raises office delinquency forecast to 8.4% in 2024 Cites: • Slower U.S. economic growth • A…
Comparing Strip Malls to Warren Buffett's Initial Investment Philosophy in the 1960s Intrinsic Value = $PSF - at a low PSF relative to earnings potential. Companies rarely trade well below intrinsic value, and the same applies to the strip mall business. When you find one, I…
Do you ever question if your bids are too low or if the market is overpaying for assets?
Bringing some community vibes to our Shopping Center! Props to Jake Early. Before and After
Economic notes: USD has been on a tear vs the YEN (note Japan is a large holder of US Treasuries) Treasury buying longer dates Treasuries / TIPS Fed reducing the amount of QT Bottom line: Where are rates going? No idea. Time to vacation in Japan? Yes.
Have heard from very credible sources (multiple independent multi-unit franchisees) that Crumbl sales are dropping hard this year 30-50% decrease YoY and a lot of frustrated franchisees in the system I think @FranchiseBob called this...
Have heard from very credible sources (multiple independent multi-unit franchisees) that Crumbl sales are dropping hard this year 30-50% decrease YoY and a lot of frustrated franchisees in the system I think @FranchiseBob called this...
Here's our conversation with @uma_moriarity from @CtrSquare on many things #commercialrealestate including... bright spots! @sonalibasak
Great thread by @chernobelskiy Important reminder for Landlords to require consent and add draconian clauses to give yourself leverage in this situation (i.e. negotiate transfer of guarantee).
Great thread by @chernobelskiy Important reminder for Landlords to require consent and add draconian clauses to give yourself leverage in this situation (i.e. negotiate transfer of guarantee).
Barstool Pizza Review - Aunt Lulu's NY Style Pizza (Boca Raton, FL)
When I’m assessing a deal I try to create a mental framework on a bell curve. 1) Percent probability of outcomes that will get me to my expected return. 2) Percent probability of outcomes that will get me outsized returns . 3) Percent probability outcomes will get me a loss,…
When underwriting retail rents there are structural limits to rents based on what we call a “health ratio”. Each user (example gyms vs restaurants) type should be able to pay a different % rent to sales. Gradually over time, the sales may increase due to passing inflation off…
When you think about larger grocery-anchored or large power centers you usually have co-tenancies (Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s as examples) that attract other National tenants. It creates a waterfall effect of tenants that like to locate next to one another. When you have an…
Timing a market is tough. Buying into the disaster is equally as difficult. We prefer to go into a property with a buy and hold mentality. There will always be exogenous risks you can’t time or calculate. We try manage our tenant lease terms in a staggered fashion, extending…
Timing a market is tough. Buying into the disaster is equally as difficult. We prefer to go into a property with a buy and hold mentality. There will always be exegenous risks you can’t time or calculate. We try manage our tenant lease terms in a staggered fashion, extending…
This Zell quote reminds me of neighborhood retail shopping centers, as most existing centers trade on average below replacement cost and new construction rent has become increasingly difficult for retailers to support with wide rent spreads between existing/new: “Where there is…
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