Sold At The Top @soldatthetop
“Sold At TheTop” is the snarky pseudonym for the organic blogger who maintains the reasonably popular PaperEconomy. Substack: https://t.co/M70pOC7I5X papereconomy.com Boston Joined July 2009-
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Housing affordability has never been worse. Occam's razor says prices will come down to bring some balance back:
Housing affordability has never been worse. Occam's razor says prices will come down to bring some balance back:
Deficits, debt and foreign aid circa 1953 demonstrates that not much has changed in #DC and the political zeitgeist in the last 70 years:
1958 synopsis reads as if it were penned today:
Greenspan jawboning deficits in 1988:
Greenspan jawboning deficits in 1994... "the longer we wait, the more Draconian the remedies will have to be.":
Greenspan jawboning deficits in 1993... "deficit is a malignant force":
#Volcker: "Deficits are really the number one obstacle"
Perfect. Going back to the original legislation gives you a stark contrast to how far things have slipped. The electorate of 1913 would be agast at how far the #Fed has strayed from thier original purpose and mandate.
Perfect. Going back to the original legislation gives you a stark contrast to how far things have slipped. The electorate of 1913 would be agast at how far the #Fed has strayed from thier original purpose and mandate.
@soldatthetop And, except that there still is a 9- to 12-month lag effect on any new rate hikes to matter. The fatal mistake was pausing last year. They should never have done so. Now the only thing that will fix inflation is a hard-landing, like history has shown us over and over again.
This is EXACTLY it... once #inflation (various reads) annualize out at 5% and rising, #Powell's goose is cooked and restarting hiking will be a given except now from a 5.25% base rare and ZERO credibility.
This is EXACTLY it... once #inflation (various reads) annualize out at 5% and rising, #Powell's goose is cooked and restarting hiking will be a given except now from a 5.25% base rare and ZERO credibility.
Chipotle asks workers to stop eating chicken: "Due to its sustained strong sales we need your help to keep up with our guests' demand for this popular protein option." #Powell's failed policy where "demand destruction" means shortages and cockamamie attempts to preserve supply.
Chipotle asks workers to stop eating chicken: "Due to its sustained strong sales we need your help to keep up with our guests' demand for this popular protein option." #Powell's failed policy where "demand destruction" means shortages and cockamamie attempts to preserve supply.
When #Powell has to finally admit that he ALSO got "dis-inflation soft landing" wrong (restarting hiking), the #Fed will have ZERO credibility and #inflation will be clearly seen by all as a new mulit-decade macroeconomic problem. Yields will reset much higher, #DC broke.
GDP COLD BUT PRICES HOT! GDP report turns out to be yet another significant indication that #inflation is re-accelerating.
GDP COLD BUT PRICES HOT! GDP report turns out to be yet another significant indication that #inflation is re-accelerating.
10 Year Yield Futures exploding higher on GDP price data... pushing ever closer to 5%:
GPD COLD: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. (STILL STRONG POSITIVE THOUGH)
JOBLESS CLAIMS HOT: In the week ending April 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's…
#Powell and the #FOMC understand the historical lessons of #Inflation only in an academic/intellectual sense. We are, sadly, riding along with them as they actually gain real practical experience. #Inflation becoming entrenched with unmoored expectations was feared for a reason.
Purchase applications crashing hard as the housing market continues to tailspin. Next up, major surge in price reductions, then outright market level declines as housing quickly erases COVID-era price boost.
Purchase applications crashing hard as the housing market continues to tailspin. Next up, major surge in price reductions, then outright market level declines as housing quickly erases COVID-era price boost.
Not so fast... OER has yet to even reflect #Powell's foolish Dove pivot from 2023 (prominent in Case Shiller). #inflation not going to be beat so easily: fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1kGkv
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So this is laggy data from FRED, but interesting… "Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States/Median Household Income in the United States"
Just got this email. They’ve also sent one offering to double or triple the rewards points if we book now. Airlines are begging us to fly. This doesn’t happen in booming economies.
Worth hearing this lecture by @GadSaad
There are no political or economic solutions to anything, anywhere, anytime. Only tradeoffs. And much of what is traded away is more valuable than what you get.
Global crypto funds just recorded 3 consecutive weeks of outflows for the first time ever. Over the last 3weeks, total crypto fund outflows were $767 million. Last week alone, ~$435 million of crypto assets were removed from these funds, the most since late March. The majority…
Does anyone know the ticker symbol for this stock? It looks like it's getting ready to move a lot higher. Thanks!
Super excited about this revolutionary innovation
There are some benefits to being old.... me on Twitter
@The92ers Yah but that resulted in a revolution in his country 60 years prior....due to John Law's 'QE Scheme'.....repeat here.
Japan is doing the silly
US SUPREME COURT DECLINES TO HEAR ELON MUSK’S BID TO NARROW HIS SECURITIES FRAUD SETTLEMENT WITH SEC
Atlanta Fed: 3.9% Goldman: 3.5% #GDP 🇺🇸
GS: We launched our Q2 GDP tracking at 3.5%, reflecting strong consumer spending momentum and favorable inventory arithmetic following a miss in Q1.
True Rate of Unemployment: 24.2% If you added in government workers who don't actually work and most real estate "investors" who don't produce anything, I bet this number is closer to 40% h/t @RonOrr @MacroEdgeRes
This is super interesting. It's from the Philly Fed and tracks "the number of people that switch from one job and immediately land another". Best quote from the article was "the dwindling number of job switchers ... suggests that workers are insecure about their job prospects".
ISM prices paid index vs. copper
@DiMartinoBooth @business Be nice if we would get to 200, I need some Japanese parts
Would I be charged with insider trading for simply mirroring @SpeakerPelosi’s (you’re not the speaker, Nance) trades verbatim? I bet you, I would.
@PeterSchiff 1 trillion new dollars, every 100 days. We’ve done Covid spending four times over already. May God help us.
It would be an interesting test for the market to go right back to testing 160 again. $jpy
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