GPT 5 year 1 economics will be interesting. If growth in usage scaled with model improvements, it’s going to be no bueno very quickly
Which got me thinking, if performance plateaus… Nvidia hit first, then race to cheap inference? Google / whoever has custom chips wins?
Venture investors probably need to start taking life insurance policies on AI researchers the same way sports teams buy specialized disability policies
One thing that I think folks are miscalibrated on in the AI SaaS fervor is the relationship between growth in ARR and moat. Before adoption meant you had signal that you built something durable and compoundable. Today, it’s probable that today and tomorrow the growth is just llms
There’s a group of Centerview analysts that have been carrying the team on their back for the last 72 hours. Just straight pain and the American dream in their hearts working this Bank deal. They’re my North Star.
1) Anyone confidently saying there is zero risk of contagion from SVB should read the “Panic of 1907.”
Especially with Treasury saying they are carefully monitoring “several other banks.”
Contagion is a real risk.
How could $SIVB have been so reckless staying in long dated bonds assuming rates would stay much lower?
I wonder who gave them that false impression?
Oh.
Something seems really broken in the Ginnie Mae space right now. Based on some simple math, if delinquency rates increase 2%, mortgage companies may have to write down $5B in equity at a moment where many are undercapitalized.
An unproven but likely theory is that the $10B hole created by FTX/Alameda was as a result of multiple and escalating trades.
An unfortunate but comical outcome would be if they tried a Martingale strategy and failed.
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