Raging Capital Ventures @RagingVentures
Commentary on investing, politics, tech, and start-ups. Not Financial Advice. Sign-up for free quarterly newsletter: https://t.co/6G64m7pEi0 ragingcapitalventures.com Princeton, NJ Joined December 2020-
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New $MAC CEO rips off the band-aid with $MAC withdrawing guidance as it will focus on deleveraging its balance sheet over the "next few years" via asset sales, equity issuance, returning assets to lenders, etc. Previously, $MAC was a heavy issuer of shares in 2021 in the $12-$14…
My favorite 20 accounts to follow for small-cap idea generation: 1. @Mike10947310 - Criminally underfollowed small-cap ideas 2. @catechwilliams - Smart off-the-beaten-path long/short 3. @NCSI_SA - Off-the-beaten-path microcaps 4. @finphysnerd - Independent thinker, Australian…
🇨🇳 China stockpiling copper at record levels.
🇨🇳 China stockpiling copper at record levels. https://t.co/oVlKjZgb82
Took steps to take down exposures on both sides of my book today, feels like a good time to get smaller. It is a funny market.
If I was (re)underwriting $RILY short from scratch today, I would be focused on understanding the trajectory of the Vitamin Shoppe (“VS”) biz within $FRG, which ramped hard during COVID. Can VS sustain that performance? If VS rolls over, the $FRG LBO has big issues. On the…
If I was (re)underwriting $RILY short from scratch today, I would be focused on understanding the trajectory of the Vitamin Shoppe (“VS”) biz within $FRG, which ramped hard during COVID. Can VS sustain that performance? If VS rolls over, the $FRG LBO has big issues. On the…
Ukraine is still likely to be outgunned by Russia for much of the rest of 2024–that's even with $60B in U.S. military aid. U.S. and Europe are only just starting to ramp up artillery production. Here are 3 questions that will define the industrial war in 2024. (🧵)
Texas Instruments, the world's largest analog + embedded chip maker now has days of inventory at 237 $TXN used to average under 150 for the longest time Wild numbers of chips (completed but unpackaged wafers) just sitting there Sad little guys not getting zoomy zoomy electrons :(
@RagingVentures @TheTranscript_ To: Mr. Market From: $FPH (Dan & Co.) Sales (Good), Homebuilding Margins Supportive Valencia Ramping & Great Park show(s) economics of late(r)-stage land banks YE-24E Net Income: $75 to $100.0mm YE-24E Net Debt: $225.0mm to $275.0m San Fran split (+), Commercial/MF Ops real
Not the most important part of the Dwarkesh/Zuck interview, but that's an interesting channel check right there.
Is TikTok able to secure next gen GPUs or is it caught up in the export bans? I ask because Zuck talks in this new (recommended) Dwarkesh podcast about how $META is using a lot of its “fleet” of GPUs to provide inference for Reels and its other products podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwa…
Red flags abound in their governance, advisors and balance sheet, but a smart biotech-focused friend of mine is intrigued by the cold tumor data from $AGEN. Curious if domain experts have an opinion? The stock has been crushed on its reverse-split and pending Russell deletion.
$WIRE getting acquired by an Italian firm for $290 per share. Luckily, I was not short on the deal announcement, and I rope-a-doped the position fairly well over the past couple of years. The stock just never showed sustained weakness, and fundamentals rolled over much slower…
$KMI on the increased demand for natural gas due to AI and data center growth
Brandon Beylo @marketplunger1
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132K Followers 2K Following Equity Analyst. I publish one in-depth research on a public company every month. Subscribe: https://t.co/bBHyta1Omy
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One of the best photos of 2024 so far: Fraternity brothers are pelted by anti-Israel protesters at UNC Chapel Hill while protecting the United States flag as it is re-hoisted following its removal by protesters. Well done, gentleman. 🫡🇺🇸
@RagingVentures I keep wanting to short this one but the never company level debt makes it tricky.
@RichLightShed @ClayTravis @BrandoLightShed @WaltLightShed If WBD loses NBA, it creates more pressure for Zaslav to find a way to acquire CBS, with their NFL and NCAA football and basketball, depending on how the chaos at Paramount sorts out in the months to come.
@ClayTravis @BrandoLightShed @WaltLightShed Investors hoped they could thread the needle with a smaller package at a similar price (or slightly higher price) Now, NBC putting up huge offer, it makes it more of a lose / lose, either overpaying to keep or no NBA -- unless they can replace with other sports content
$ROOT reminds me a lot of $UPST in terms of the setup going into earnings (which $UPST has done a few times). It could easily trade down to $30 after earnings. Puts seem like they are worth it.
MS M&A screen...I got my chips on PD, APPN, FROG & SMAR
🇨🇳 China stockpiling copper at record levels.
⚠️ COPPER DEMAND TO BOOM AS NEW TECHNOLOGY DRIVES POWER CONSUMPTION, TRAFIGURA SAYS Full Story → PiQSuite.com/reuters/copper… Flourishing activity in the electric vehicle, power infrastructure, AI and automation sectors will lead to at least 10 million metric tons of additional…
My favorite 20 accounts to follow for small-cap idea generation: 1. @Mike10947310 - Criminally underfollowed small-cap ideas 2. @catechwilliams - Smart off-the-beaten-path long/short 3. @NCSI_SA - Off-the-beaten-path microcaps 4. @finphysnerd - Independent thinker, Australian…
Sad: College Student So Caught Up Harassing Jews He Forgot About Term Paper On Inclusion buff.ly/3xQB5Zj
There's only one thing to understand when it comes to investing: risk:reward Most instances, the only way to increase returns is to increase risk. Study the risk curve
@Josh_Young_1 @litcapital Young people in America today want communism. They believe it means they get to play video games all day in their parents basement while the government sends them a check. It doesn't work that way....
Neolithic pictographs from Wadi Sura, Egypt could possibly be 10,000 years old. The "Cave of Swimmers" site located in a mountainous region of the Gilf Kebir Plateau (Sahara) features such pictographs as people "swimming," hand prints and various animals like antelopes and…
@RagingVentures @Bloomberg has transaction data at the vitamin shoppe banner level via their new ALTD platform that is part of the terminal. dM me for details…
@RagingVentures See if this helps. (amounts in $ thousands)
@RagingVentures FRG 7/1/23 3M Revenue Breakdown
About the only good thing you can say about $INTC is that it can't really get much worse from here (last big FCF burn Q at over 6B)- most of their cyclical biz at bottom and Foundry losses gradually get better- not sure if that's much of a bull thesis, but what you got..
I share about 5% of what I do every day-this mkt moves so fast/things change on a dime-there's the fundamental backdrop, then the very ST trading which is almost impossible to post about- try to throw out more obv things occasionally-ST always taking advantage of ST overreactions
What I don't get about buybacks many times- $META just spent almost 15B in buying stock (think most ever unless I heard wrong) north of 460 when they themselves drove it up artificially, and they must have been thinking of investing aggressively thru q1- prob fine LT but...
Maybe a minor point but why did $META announce a new $50B buyback auth now w/ 30B still left to buy (5 Qs worth) while also doing the new .50 div that's going to jack the price up-save some for a rainy day! like our Govt with deficit spending-just had to get that off my chest
Zuck talking multi-yr investment cycle for AI products for $META, said stock tends to be "volatile" when spending a lot and not getting any revenue- not what you want to hear- exact opposite of past 18 mos
Ukraine is still likely to be outgunned by Russia for much of the rest of 2024–that's even with $60B in U.S. military aid. U.S. and Europe are only just starting to ramp up artillery production. Here are 3 questions that will define the industrial war in 2024. (🧵)
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