Daniel Collins @DCfuts_opts
The finest purveyor of Futures & Options to the markets illuminati linkedin.com/in/daniel-coll… Dubai Joined October 2014-
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Position add for ECB Dec cut and hold ERZ5 98.06/98.18/98.31 cfly bought for 2.25 in 10k Traded yesterday same level in 24k Dec expiry lands three days before the ECB meeting; body pinned if they trim 25bps then hold into Feb. Delta 11%, ROI 4.5:1 #options
Trade Idea - Sonia 1yr midcurve Buy 0NV5 96.20/96.00/95.90 broken put fly for 2 Ref SFIZ6 96.43 | ROI 9:1 | Delta 12%| Exp 10thOct linkedin.com/posts/daniel-c…
ECB to cut Dec and price hold to 13bps Feb ERZ5 98.0625/98.125/98.25/98.3125 c cndr bgt for 1.5 in 3k A large fly traded earlier but this iteration whilst tighter in its profit zone does allow a landing zone vs a pin Delta 10% ROI 3:1 #options
#option ECB Hold or 1 hike by Mar26 - Large Pos Build ERH6 97.9375/97.8125/97.6875/97.5625 put condor ppr pays 0.5 on 7.5k all day Trade 12k Yesterday Delta 7% ROI 24:1 Expiry 16th Mar | Mar ECB 19th Body of condor allows for ~unc to one hike priced by Mar26
Euribor Options - ECB Boxed in on rates moves Trade Du Jour ERU6 98.375/98.1875/97.9375 put lad bgt 2.75 in 15k +24d and modestly neg gamma. Breakeven sits around 97.77 max profit between 97.94 and 98.19 — a sweet spot for a boxed-in ECB. ROI is just under 6:1. #options
Sonia Options Trade Du Jour SFIX5 96.15/96.10 ps vs SFIV5 96.15/96.05 ps bought Nov for 0.25 in 10k With no Oct meeting could this be a cunning BoE Hold play? All will be revealed after O.I tomorrow and ill update in tomorrow’s report #options
The People's 50bps cut call spread is still active! Buyer 13.5k all day in SFRU5 96.125/96.25 cs for 1.5 - bid over now, unsurprisingly with positioning above 200k #options
‘The Too Slow Catch Up Trade’ A monster position is building in Sep25 Sofr Options after further buying today Buyer 50k SFRU5 96.125/96.25 call spread from 1.375 to 1.5 That’s adding to yesterday’s buy for 1.5 in 50k and a further ~100k last week. #options
Euribor Options Trade Du Jour ERZ5 98.125/98.1875/98.25/98.3125 call condor vs 98.04 4d paid 1.5 in 3k Plays for the Dec cuts but retains full value if up to 5bps of hikes get priced into Feb Tight condor ROI 3:1 Delta 5% #options
Sonia Options - Trade Du Jour SFIM6 96.90/97.10 cs vs SFIM6 96.00/95.85 ps bght for 1.25 in 10k – all day New pos as no O.I in the 97.10c. Buyer confident that inf is stable that BoE wont be able to hike. ROI 15:1 in-line with GS & MS that rates are set fall in 2026 #options
ECB to Hike by Feb Play or Basis Blowout into year end? ERZ5 98.00/97.875 put spread ppr pays 2.5 on 10k Should the ECB remain on hold for 2025 with a Feb hike fully priced EDSP should land at 97.86 Whilst an ECB fully on hold sees 97.96 ROI 4:1 Delta 21% #options
Euribor Options Today - Low volume day but one large bet for ECB to be at 1% by Sep26 next year. ERU6 98.75/99.00 call spread paid 2 in 31.5k ROI: 11.5:1 Delta: 6% - New Risk looking at O.I #options
BoE Thur - Play for pricing of a 25bp cut, 50% Sep and 25bp cut fully priced Nov SFIQ5 96.15/96.20 cs bought for 1 in 7k ROI 4:1 Delta 16% #options
Large Fed on hold play in Dec25 Sofr: SFRZ5 95.875/95.75 ps cvr 96.23 d6 ppr pays 2 on 12k Still makes money if a 25bps cut gets fully priced into Jan mtg #options
Barx BoE Prev: Barclays' expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp at its August meeting to 4.0% with a three-way vote split (with two members voting for a hold and two voting for a larger, 50bp cut). We think a slowdown of QT will be signalled ahead of September's decision
Sonia Options: SFIQ5 96.15/96.20 call spread ppr pays 0.6 synth on 5k #Options
ECB cut twice in 2025 play - Late yesterday ERZ5 98.375/98.50 call spread vs 98.105/98.11 8d bgt for 1 on 30k 2 Cuts and 50% priced into Feb to breach top strike ROI 11.5:1 Delta 6% #options
Sonia Options. Big Upside Today SFIM6 97.40/97.50 call sprd ppr pays 0.75 on 10k SFIZ5 96.65/96.75 call sprd vs 96.32 2%d ppr pays 0.75 on 10k
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