Macro @GavekalResearch
I work at Gavekal Research- it’s official Twitter handle being @gavekal gavekal.com Hong Kong Joined February 2019-
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On this episode of Commodity Culture, @gave_vincent points out that as a new middle class emerges in places like India, Latin America, and across Asia, precious metals, copper, uranium, and energy prices are headed much higher. youtu.be/klndYlDUuJs #gold #silver #uranium
So although small business owners report a significant decline in hiring plans, this could be more than offset if large businesses continue to hire workers: research.gavekal.com/teaser/big-ver…
Over the last two decades the share of US employment represented by small businesses with under 500 employees has dropped below 50% and now stands at about 46%. That is still a very sizeable chunk of the labor market, but it is no longer dominant.
While Vietnam’s structural outlook remains solid, its leaders are not currently taking the actions needed to hit their long-term targets and avoid the dreaded middle-income trap: research.gavekal.com/teaser/can-vie…
GDP growth limped to 5% last year, below the 7% average of the past three decades. The big worry is that growth disappoints for several more years, as political infighting causes capital projects to be delayed.
Vietnam is one of the big winners of global derisking, perfectly positioned to gain from the US-China rivalry as supply chains reshuffle away from China. Everything is in place to match China’s double-digit growth of 10-15 years ago, but real growth is slower by half.
Agree with all conclusions This is brave new world of investing .. old 60/40 models will not work Via @gave_vincent
Went to the private beach with the fiancé yesterday, the fee keeps the obnoxious people out so she can tan in peace and I can read. Caught up on GaveKal pieces. Thinking about it this morning, western policymakers are lost. They don’t understand how they are losing to Russia.…
France’s government debt readings keep going from bad to worse, yet sovereign bond investors do not seem to be punishing policymakers for their spendthrift ways. In the full video interview, Europe economist Cedric Gemehl explores different political scenarios that could upset…
$tsla
The combination of these forces has driven the price of gold up even more dramatically in yen terms. The risk for this overbought gold/yen trade is that Japan now intervenes in the forex market to strengthen the currency.
The likely culprit is strong buying from Chinese and Japanese investors. Meanwhile, the yen has fallen against the US dollar, as the Bank of Japan remains ultra-easy and the Fed no longer seems set to narrow the interest rate differential anytime soon.
The price of gold has shot up in US dollar terms in recent weeks, despite fading expectations of Federal Reserve easing as inflation figures surprise on the upside. An easier Fed ought to have benefited the gold price on the margin, but in its absence, what is the cause?
Given the sharp rise in private sector leverage in recent years, it is safe to assume that many more skeletons are waiting to tumble out of the closet.
There has already been a sharp rise in non-performing loans across the banking system to around 5%, matching the peak seen during the last credit cycle in 2011-12.
Policy paralysis induced by an anti-corruption campaign that has ensnared political leaders and business tycoons threatens to prevent Vietnam from fulfilling its economic potential.
Vietnam is urging banks to push out more credit to boost growth and attract investment as companies seek to diversify supply chains outside China. The worry is that a credit crunch concentrated in the graft-riddled real estate sector could ripple through the rest of the economy.
By special permission, I’ve reposted from @PauloMacro ‘s blog. This is a conversation between @gave_vincent @kevinmuir and myself. It’s important to think through the implications. In fact, I think you should read this a few times and dwell on it👇
By special permission, I’ve reposted from @PauloMacro ‘s blog. This is a conversation between @gave_vincent @kevinmuir and myself. It’s important to think through the implications. In fact, I think you should read this a few times and dwell on it👇
As confrontations have flared between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea, US president Joe Biden has declared an “ironclad” commitment to the Philippines’ defense in a trilateral security pact along with Japan. Gavekal geopolitical risk analyst Yanmei Xie…
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6K Followers 6K Following Young Research & Publishing is the exclusive investment research provider to https://t.co/4usEABGG60. We also maintain the https://t.co/DL7nXbfAbO website.On this episode of Commodity Culture, @gave_vincent points out that as a new middle class emerges in places like India, Latin America, and across Asia, precious metals, copper, uranium, and energy prices are headed much higher. youtu.be/klndYlDUuJs #gold #silver #uranium
So although small business owners report a significant decline in hiring plans, this could be more than offset if large businesses continue to hire workers: research.gavekal.com/teaser/big-ver…
Over the last two decades the share of US employment represented by small businesses with under 500 employees has dropped below 50% and now stands at about 46%. That is still a very sizeable chunk of the labor market, but it is no longer dominant.
While Vietnam’s structural outlook remains solid, its leaders are not currently taking the actions needed to hit their long-term targets and avoid the dreaded middle-income trap: research.gavekal.com/teaser/can-vie…
GDP growth limped to 5% last year, below the 7% average of the past three decades. The big worry is that growth disappoints for several more years, as political infighting causes capital projects to be delayed.
Vietnam is one of the big winners of global derisking, perfectly positioned to gain from the US-China rivalry as supply chains reshuffle away from China. Everything is in place to match China’s double-digit growth of 10-15 years ago, but real growth is slower by half.
Agree with all conclusions This is brave new world of investing .. old 60/40 models will not work Via @gave_vincent
Went to the private beach with the fiancé yesterday, the fee keeps the obnoxious people out so she can tan in peace and I can read. Caught up on GaveKal pieces. Thinking about it this morning, western policymakers are lost. They don’t understand how they are losing to Russia.…
France’s government debt readings keep going from bad to worse, yet sovereign bond investors do not seem to be punishing policymakers for their spendthrift ways. In the full video interview, Europe economist Cedric Gemehl explores different political scenarios that could upset…
@ablebonus Here's the URL link to the excellent @Gavekal webinar I watched: research.gavekal.com/content/webina…
Always fun to catch up with @PauloMacro @hkuppy and @kevinmuir
On China: Why the Real Risk is CNY 5, Not 9 MUST READ OF THE WEEK!!! ht @hkuppy @gave_vincent @kevinmuir @PauloMacro pracap.com/on-china-why-t…
The likely culprit is strong buying from Chinese and Japanese investors. Meanwhile, the yen has fallen against the US dollar, as the Bank of Japan remains ultra-easy and the Fed no longer seems set to narrow the interest rate differential anytime soon.
The price of gold has shot up in US dollar terms in recent weeks, despite fading expectations of Federal Reserve easing as inflation figures surprise on the upside. An easier Fed ought to have benefited the gold price on the margin, but in its absence, what is the cause?
The combination of these forces has driven the price of gold up even more dramatically in yen terms. The risk for this overbought gold/yen trade is that Japan now intervenes in the forex market to strengthen the currency.
Interesting perspective on China 🇨🇳 by Louis-Vincent Gave @Gavekal @PauloMacro @kuppyskorner #China #Yuan #USA #OOTT $BABA
Brilliant discussion by the @Gavekal team. Especially enjoyed Anatole’s take on Western protectionism and inflation around the 38 min mark.
Every week, we (Gavekal) hold a zoominar for clients in which clients ask questions and we try to engage in a discussion. It’s pretty rare that Charles, Anatole and myself end up on the same zoom call. So I thought we would make this one open to everyone. A note of warning: if…
Given the sharp rise in private sector leverage in recent years, it is safe to assume that many more skeletons are waiting to tumble out of the closet.
There has already been a sharp rise in non-performing loans across the banking system to around 5%, matching the peak seen during the last credit cycle in 2011-12.
Policy paralysis induced by an anti-corruption campaign that has ensnared political leaders and business tycoons threatens to prevent Vietnam from fulfilling its economic potential.
Vietnam is urging banks to push out more credit to boost growth and attract investment as companies seek to diversify supply chains outside China. The worry is that a credit crunch concentrated in the graft-riddled real estate sector could ripple through the rest of the economy.
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