JAZ Macro @JAXCapital
Macro trader specialising in Futures Sydney, New South Wales Joined December 2017-
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so help me understand, we were at 4100 when 10yr was 5%, now we're at 4.715% on the 10 yr and $spx is 5000+??? at the start of 2024, markets priced in 8 cuts, with $SPX at 4850, but somehow, now that 8 cuts are priced OUT, and potentially hike is in, we're at 5000+???? REALLY?
so help me understand, we were at 4100 when 10yr was 5%, now we're at 4.715% on the 10 yr and $spx is 5000+??? at the start of 2024, markets priced in 8 cuts, with $SPX at 4850, but somehow, now that 8 cuts are priced OUT, and potentially hike is in, we're at 5000+???? REALLY?
Rates & Stocks ht Kantro
I dropped a Reminiscences derivative turn of phrase with a buddy not long ago after a loss saying “I wish sometimes the tuition weren’t so goddamn expensive” and his comeback was the best: “If it weren’t so expensive, you wouldn’t learn the lesson.”
I dropped a Reminiscences derivative turn of phrase with a buddy not long ago after a loss saying “I wish sometimes the tuition weren’t so goddamn expensive” and his comeback was the best: “If it weren’t so expensive, you wouldn’t learn the lesson.”
very suprised $USDJPY hasn't moved lower more loaded up on it - yields alone should have done more damage than 60bps than throw in the geopolitical, should be 150ish...
very suprised $USDJPY hasn't moved lower more loaded up on it - yields alone should have done more damage than 60bps than throw in the geopolitical, should be 150ish...
ahahahahahhahahahahhahahahahah this fuking guy
ahahahahahhahahahahhahahahahah this fuking guy
somehow getting inflation back to target [hopefully] 5 YEARS after the spike = inflation expectations are WELL ANCHORED..... GTFO
somehow getting inflation back to target [hopefully] 5 YEARS after the spike = inflation expectations are WELL ANCHORED..... GTFO
looking at yields, will the market finally give back some and get out of its heavily overbought levels???
Disagree with this on two levels 1) the Q2 TGA starting and ending level is targeted for 750BN. It will build from now through April 18th as tax receipts are paid. That plumbing will withdraw liquidity from the private sector and banks. Then it will be spent and reinfected…
Disagree with this on two levels 1) the Q2 TGA starting and ending level is targeted for 750BN. It will build from now through April 18th as tax receipts are paid. That plumbing will withdraw liquidity from the private sector and banks. Then it will be spent and reinfected…
is this fker for real???? you don't think a 3% differential on a real yields basis on a 5% differential on a nominal basis matters?!!?!?!
is this fker for real???? you don't think a 3% differential on a real yields basis on a 5% differential on a nominal basis matters?!!?!?!
remember, Goolsbee is a political hack Would have gotten the call from Brainard saying "change the narrative"!!
remember, Goolsbee is a political hack Would have gotten the call from Brainard saying "change the narrative"!!
🔴 US 30-YEAR BOND AUCTION
So $AMZN operating profit guidance would have been inline with street estimates if it wasn’t for an accounting change for the useful lives of servers resulting in lower D&A of $900M for 1Q & $3.1B for 2024. This follows $GOOGL doing the same. Companies doing everything to…
Imagine being this stupid. $TSLA $MS
sure, giving extra money to those who consume most of their income will NOT result in more spending, which given the limited resources, will therefore NOT result in inflation these fking muppets
sure, giving extra money to those who consume most of their income will NOT result in more spending, which given the limited resources, will therefore NOT result in inflation these fking muppets
i was long $HSI this week, was expecting some sort of pump headline so got out when we had that 3% rally today. def think there's more to come, but who knows how much of these index swap products are causing this action but come on, a $xxbn net worth guy buys 50M and we pump???
i was long $HSI this week, was expecting some sort of pump headline so got out when we had that 3% rally today. def think there's more to come, but who knows how much of these index swap products are causing this action but come on, a $xxbn net worth guy buys 50M and we pump???
I’m gonna give 10 random people that repost this and follow me $25,000 for fun (the $250,000 my X video made) I’ll pick the winners in 72 hours
2/2 Since the S&P 500 was invented in 1926, this is only the 13th time this index has reached at least nine consecutive up weeks. The last one was the nine weeks ending January 23, 2004. Of the previous 12 up weeks, eight of them (66%) did not make it to 10 weeks.
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$META down 10% on revenues +26% yoy vs $TSLA up 10% on revenues -9% yoy is precisely why I love the Market and I'm convinced that monkeys will always give us chances to make money 🥹
Pretty amazing that I ask for names of people who have a point of view that I don't understand so I can read their work and benefit People think I am attacking them and building a gotcha list? How about shifting one's view of the world from victim to that I have benign intent
I've now seen it all....
"Don't expect a supply response in Energy until CEO comp incentives revert to production goals." dailychartbook.com/p/daily-chartb… via @dailychartbook
I dropped a Reminiscences derivative turn of phrase with a buddy not long ago after a loss saying “I wish sometimes the tuition weren’t so goddamn expensive” and his comeback was the best: “If it weren’t so expensive, you wouldn’t learn the lesson.”
I know on Twitter most people never share an idea that is shockingly wrong in hindsight🙄 Well... in the spirit of learning and encouraging others, how about we retweet our #WorstTweetEver? I'll go first with one that almost cost me my career.
@jasondebolt You realize how stupid you guys look by asking for 10% dilution, right?
@garyblack00 You're the only person among the pros who thinks the comp plan will be reinstated, Gary.
It's from tax filing...TGA rise offsets this
Incoming: Liquidity RRP drops by over $80B to new lows.
i think there are positive, sizable, short dated flows that can come into the market through Tuesday night & VIX exp. volatility needs a place to go & if your positions expire Wed then geopolitics may not factor in if things don’t immediately escalate
@DariusDale42 Calm??? Have you looked at the bond market?
$spy ZERO... you're possibly the markets biggest idiot. China wants a political takeover Ala Hong Kong you're just such an idiot you equate the stock market with every headline you read and regretfully suck young ones outof equities every day. You're an asshole...delete
Disagree with this on two levels 1) the Q2 TGA starting and ending level is targeted for 750BN. It will build from now through April 18th as tax receipts are paid. That plumbing will withdraw liquidity from the private sector and banks. Then it will be spent and reinfected…
The key player in this monetary plumbing operation won't be Powell and the Federal Reserve. But rather Secretary Yellen and the US Treasury department! How? 2/
Not understanding why markets can go parabolic because you think the market is not valued at that is simply misunderstanding the market. You’re a bad analyst/trader, little else.
@LynAldenContact @PrestonPysh @clockwork_parts My first thought when I saw these charts was True Detective Season 4
So $AMZN operating profit guidance would have been inline with street estimates if it wasn’t for an accounting change for the useful lives of servers resulting in lower D&A of $900M for 1Q & $3.1B for 2024. This follows $GOOGL doing the same. Companies doing everything to…
Orange Mentos $1 White $5 Brazil nuts $25
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