Macro Marko @MacroMarco3
Former HF analyst Mostly RTs and a few thoughts here & there Joined January 2021-
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Autumn seasonal weakness in the first year of the Presidential Cycle tends to be more extreme than average Since 1928, the September win rate is just 42%(n=24)... Yikes Obviously, that's not to say we're headed for a recession, but some volatility in the coming months would be…
Autumn seasonal weakness in the first year of the Presidential Cycle tends to be more extreme than average Since 1928, the September win rate is just 42%(n=24)... Yikes Obviously, that's not to say we're headed for a recession, but some volatility in the coming months would be… https://t.co/b5Hen6WHYz
Great chart
Has the MSM even acknowledged this?
Has the MSM even acknowledged this?
When liquidity/credit conditions are supportive, good things tend to happen for stocks Or, more to the point, bad things tend NOT to happen
We're getting asked frequently: is market sentiment currently too frothy? And the answer is NO Three points from today's Daily Edge 1) Sentiment tracks price, always 2) Sentiment is right where it should be given recent px 3) Sentiment really isn't a *great* indicator of fwd…
Analytical edge is usually NOT about predicting the future It's about having a differentiated view of the probabilities relative to what's priced in
What if the cost of excessive deficits is NOT hyperinflation? What if it's an unproductive mess of an economy that doesn't work for ordinary people? Pretty good evidence that too much government spending creates substantial drag on productivity/real growth Why? Because unlike…
Important chart!!
No one is talking about it, but growth in the money supply is *clearly *accelerating* - Despite QT - Despite DOGE - Despite record uncertainty And yet, no one is talking about it This has a host of implication for both the economy Anyone know average/median stock returns when…
Our May Outlook is now live! This is the best way to start your month as an investor In today's edition, we're going to take a closer look at... - The economy's transition from reflation to deflation and why it matters for markets - Whether or not we're headed for a recession…
In March, personal consumption expenditures increased a +7.9% annualized pace The bears want a recession *right now* But that's just not how it works
Two scenarios laid out here: 1) Tariffs represent 100 bp headwind to real growth. That's more-or-less what's priced-in right now by $SPY 2) Second-order effects of tariffs+policy uncertainty create much more substantial drag on growth, likely through investment freeze+layoffs…
@danielsethlewis @StephanieKelton People don’t separate the mechanics/plumbing of MMT from the policy agenda of MMT most vocal adherents. people who don’t understand the framework conflate the two and reject them both because they hate the policy part.
Good q. Worth thinking about
Back to more bears than bulls on the AAII survey. We've seen more weeks with bears > bulls so far in 2025 than we did over all of 2024. Not bull market behavior.
$SPOT Big 3 + Merlin Label concentration
Initial jobless claims up to 219k vs. 213k est. & 208k prior; continuing claims at 1.886M vs. 1.870M est. & 1.850M prior (rev down from 1.858M) … greatest increases in NY (+4.1k), CA (+4.0k), & GA (+0.8k); greatest decreases in NJ (-1.3k), MA (-0.9k), & MI (-0.6k)
I always highly recommend these to my bottom up friends who want to be more “macro aware”
I always highly recommend these to my bottom up friends who want to be more “macro aware”
A great call by Mike. Kudos where due
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