Trade Desk Analytics @TDeskAnalytics
Joined August 2025-
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Container shipping costs are plunging again: The spot rate for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Rotterdam fell to $1,735 last week, the lowest since mid-December 2023. This marks the 8th consecutive weekly decline in rates to Europe. Shipping costs from Shanghai to Los…
Treasury Bonds now have a higher yield than U.S. Stocks, a change from what we've seen over the last 20 years
Inflation pressure still hot … 3m annualized change in Core PCE Price Index at +2.9% in August
Foreign Central Banks now own more Gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time in almost 30 years 🚨🚨🚨
Unemployment fears continue to rise per UMich survey of consumers … 65% expect higher unemployment rate a year from now
The annual GDP revisions released last week put a brighter hue on the economy’s performance so far this year, but the economy’s performance and near-term prospects remain far from bright. The biggest upward revision was to consumer spending, and as I’ve shown in previous posts,…
Regional Fed surveys suggest manufacturers may be gearing up for an attempt at pushing price: Despite a decline in the current prices received components (i.e. fewer firms increased their selling prices), the future prices received actually increased on balance.
At some point market needs to start punishing tech companies for unprofitable AI spending, the way it was punishing Oil and Gas E&Ps in 2018 for drilling.
Trucking has been in my family since the 1960’s. We’ve lived through multiple cycles: Trucking deregulation, oil crisis, stagflation, the S&L collapse, Gulf War, Sept 11, and the financial crisis. I’ve spoken to dozens of trucking veterans with 40+ years of experience -…
Trucking has been in my family since the 1960’s. We’ve lived through multiple cycles: Trucking deregulation, oil crisis, stagflation, the S&L collapse, Gulf War, Sept 11, and the financial crisis. I’ve spoken to dozens of trucking veterans with 40+ years of experience -…
Both U.S. Manufacturing and Services from @SPGlobalPMI remained above 50 in September, but Manufacturing has slipped back below Services
The U.S. freight industry hasn’t been this weak since 2008.
Everyone seems bullish on US tech, but @bespokeinvest raises an interesting point after Nvidia & OpenAI's latest $100 billion deal to build data centers: the industry is becoming incredibly circular, investing in clients to sustain revenue, depending on each other's success (1/2)
Easing like it's 2008 or 2020. Into an AI boom.
It should be obvious to everyone now that we're at the end of a 16 year economic cycle that was prolonged with cheap debt similar to 1929.
It should be obvious to everyone now that we're at the end of a 16 year economic cycle that was prolonged with cheap debt similar to 1929. https://t.co/qnEppAZnlo
Systematic investors are maxed out. Potentially an explosive situation (like this April) when volatility increases. x.com/neilksethi/sta…
Systematic investors are maxed out. Potentially an explosive situation (like this April) when volatility increases. x.com/neilksethi/sta…
⚠️Global equities 'SELL SIGNAL' has been triggered for the 3rd month STRAIGHT. Institutional investors' cash level as a share of assets hit 3.9% in September. According to the BofA rule, cash allocations at or below 4% historically indicate a “SELL SIGNAL” for global stocks.
Sales of Heavy Trucks are collapsing, which has *usually* foreshadowed an upcoming recession 🚨🤯👀
BREAKING: Unrealized losses on investment securities for US banks reached $395.3 billion in Q2 2025. This is ~6 TIMES higher than at the peak of the 2008 Financial Crisis. This also marks the 13th consecutive quarter of losses as interest rates remained elevated. Meanwhile,…
Interesting quandary per @LeutholdGroup analysis
The only period in US history with higher valuations than today: 1999-2000 during the dot-com mania. Back then, the Fed was hiking rates. Today, the Fed is cutting rates. Is this about to become the biggest bubble of all time? Video: youtube.com/watch?v=rnZ0qn…
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