WingCapital @WingCapitalNet
Portfolio Management & #AlgoTrading in #stocks #futures #fx #crypto. Macro Commentary at SeekingAlpha. wingcapital.net Hong Kong Joined June 2016-
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S&P HIGHS IN THE LAST WEEK IN AUGUST The S&P set new 12Mt Highs on August 27 & 28th. Since 1950, there have been 12 previous cases of 12 Month Highs set in the last week of August. In only one of those 12 cases (2018) did the S&P manage to post a positive September…
The S&P 500 ended its streak without a 1% move with a big, fat thud. Prior to 2018, no big deal. Since then, all four signals saw the S&P drop > 12% at some point within the next 6 months.
The S&P 500 has fallen below its 20 day moving average for the first time in over 60 days. Next few days aren't good ⬇️
The systematic buying frenzy is done CTAs are now back at maximum long exposure (99.8th percentile). $SPX $QQQ $IWM
Large speculators/hedge funds most net short Russell 2000 futures since mid-2024 … getting closer to max net short positioning seen in 2022 bear market
NASDAQ down 7 straight during July monthly options expiration week. NASDAQ also bearish on monthly options expiration day, down 23 of last 35, avg loss 0.46%. jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/788799243…
It’s all about liquidity. The $SPX has been moving in sync with Global M2 (on an 11 week lag). It’s signaling $6800+ for the $SPX.
Wary Positioning Leaves Room for S&P 500 to Rally [Bloomberg] “While stocks have roared back, big money managers remain remarkably underweight: equity positioning has been lower only 23% of the time since 2010, according to DB.”
One sector has reached a record high, and it should be a good one. Among major S&P 500 sectors, industrials are the first to power to a new high. This is supposed to be a good sign...and it is. When industrials led, the U.S. fell into a recession only once within the following…
Nasdaq 100 on verge of triggering an overheated condition that typically precedes a pullback or consolidation. Currently 23.8% of $QQQ $NDX stocks trading with RSI above 70 (overheated threshold). At 25% the signal is triggered. $SPY $ES_F $COMPQ $SPX $NYA h/t @WallStCourier
More than 96% of S&P 500 stocks went Up today. This is the 2nd day of strong breadth in the past 10 days. Could lead to a pullback, but the S&P was consistently higher 2 months later ⬇️
This is the first VIX close under 30 in two weeks. Even during bear markets, the S&P 500 usually saw 2-4 weeks of relief.
We are currently 29 trading days into this $SPX correction. The median non-recessionary $SPX correction lasts 60 days. The median recessionary $SPX correction lasts 282 days, almost 5x as long.
Down Q1 Can Lead to More Trouble. No joke. Q2 & Q3 weak overall Q3 esp in post-elect. If bear usually near low, if not more trouble. Weak Rep post-elect p28 of 2025 Almanac 1953, 1957, 1969, 1973, 1981, Carter 1977 & 2022 standout. Bear turns in 1980, 1982, 2003, 2009 & 2020.…
CTAs are short -$34B of US equities and long $52B of European equities. This is the largest spread we have EVER seen. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $FEZ
#vix - Elevated Above 25 - 2 Consecutive Days .
We have seen unprecedented de-risking from Hedge Funds during this $SPX pullback. Over the last 2 weeks, Hedge Funds have sold global equities at the fastest pace ever recorded. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $NVDA $TSLA $PLTR
Biggest spike in uncertainty since the Global Pandemic and 9/11. Wall of worry? Or this time is different?

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