ACEMAXX ANALYTICS @acemaxx
Senior Economist - @HSG_Alumni acemaxxanalytics.substack.com Zurich Joined February 2009-
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US GDP 1Q2024 grew at 1.6%Y, excluding #volatile components (trade, inventories) the economy grew at a healthy 3.1% rate, slightly above last year's average, chart @JPMorganAM
S&P 500 #sector returns, chart @JPMorganAM
#Japan #BoJ will cautiously raise its policy rate to 1% by 2028. The risk that 1% won’t be reached is also still significant due to the huge downside risks in the med-term price outlook, especially the sustainability of #wage rises & SMEs’ pricing power, notes @OxfordEconomics
#euro --- #inflation in the #eurozone continues to fall, chart @FT ft.com/content/4eb784…
(no #stagflation in sight) So, investors are resigning themselves to a longer battle against #inflation, while betting that the economy remains in good shape, chart @johnauthers bloomberg.com/opinion/author…
#Tesla strike in #Sweden -- #ElonMusk is locked in a stalemate with a group of #Swedish technicians that’s lasted 4x as long as the #UAW United Auto Workers strike, chart @BloombergTV bloomberg.com/news/features/…
The debate over r-star may have little near-term effect on #Fed b/c current interest rates are above virtually all estimates of #neutral - That means they are restraining growth and prices, and more likely to fall than rise, chart @WSJecon wsj.com/economy/centra…
The neutral rate (“r*” or “r-star”) can’t be directly observed, only inferred. 5y ago, after #Fed raised its benchmark to 2.4%, officials saw signs of feeble #growth & #inflation and began lowering rates, implying neutral must have been around that level, or lower @WSJecon
#Japan ’s RoE and P/B are improving, presenting investors with a once in a generation rerating opportunity in a once forgotten market, chart Gabriela Santos @JPMorganAM
Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas
116K Followers 4K Following Head of Research, Founder: @topdowncharts Global Macro & Asset Allocation Research (tweets = not advice) NOTE: I will never DM you -- beware of scammers.
Michael A. Arouet @MichaelAArouet
75K Followers 765 Following Compounding. Charts and as I don’t need to sell anything here also irony. No investment advice. I don’t send DMs, my impersonators do. I‘m not on Telegram etc.
Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta
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Brad Setser @Brad_Setser
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Dario Perkins @darioperkins
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The Demogra-fate Hypo.. @DemographicFate
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Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas
116K Followers 4K Following Head of Research, Founder: @topdowncharts Global Macro & Asset Allocation Research (tweets = not advice) NOTE: I will never DM you -- beware of scammers.
Michael A. Arouet @MichaelAArouet
75K Followers 765 Following Compounding. Charts and as I don’t need to sell anything here also irony. No investment advice. I don’t send DMs, my impersonators do. I‘m not on Telegram etc.
Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon
58K Followers 766 Following Researcher, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (@wiiw_ac_at); macroeconomics, economic policy, public finance, political economy.
Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond
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Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis
147K Followers 208 Following Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. For speaking engagements, please contact me at [email protected]
Brad Setser @Brad_Setser
98K Followers 953 Following CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. Writes on sovereign debt and capital flows.
Dario Perkins @darioperkins
60K Followers 2K Following MD Global Macro @TS_Lombard, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan
Samantha LaDuc @SamanthaLaDuc
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Tracy Alloway @tracyalloway
191K Followers 5K Following Co-host of the Odd Lots podcast. I like financial crisis hindsight, spurious correlation and puppies. London ➡️ New York ➡️ Abu Dhabi ➡️ Hong Kong ➡️ New York
Gunjan Banerji @GunjanJS
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Daniela Gabor @DanielaGabor
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Mark Olssen @MarkOlssen
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Tom Mackenzie @TomMackenzieTV
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Highcharts @Highcharts
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Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance
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The Minsky Moment @just_KarlJ
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Barkow Consulting @BarkowConsult
11K Followers 8K Following We Use Data Analytics to Make Sense of Finance #BarkowInside #Research #Finance #Data /PB = Peter Barkow Impressum: https://t.co/uqqLdDIIV4
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Macronomics 🇦🇲�.. @Macronomics1
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Stephen Carroll @stephencrrll
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Althea Spinozzi @Altheaspinozzi
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Daniel Chandler @dan_chandler
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Felix Geiger @Flx_Geiger
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Michele Wucker 🦏 �.. @wucker
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@13sarahmurphy just as global mental health worsens especially among the young plan is to make people's anxiety and depression worse...evil nasty Tories at it again. The collapse of the UK economy is down to the disabled, the mentally ill, children, single mothers and poor people..not them!
Die Deutschen sind faul geworden? Davon kann keine Rede sein. 2023 leisteten die Beschäftigten in der Bundesrepublik 55 Milliarden Arbeitsstunden, soviel wie noch nie. Ausserdem kommt es noch auf etwas anderes an:
“Für den Wohlstand kommt es nicht nur auf Arbeitsstunden an, sondern darauf, ob Beschäftigte produktiver werden – also in der gleichen Zeit mehr leisten”, sagt Alexander @Hagelueken. @SZ #presseclub
Karl Polanyi, one of the twentieth century’s most insightful and influential socialist thinkers, passed away exactly 60 years ago. His masterpiece, The Great Transformation, remains the most powerful critique yet produced of market liberalism — the belief that societies can and…
Herr Lindner, Sie haben Mut und Prgmatismus verloren. Statt sich hinter der Schuldenbremse zu verstecken, könnten Sie echte liberale Steuerpolitik machen. Sie aber treten nach unten, auf Arbeitslose und Asylbewerber. Das ist schäbig, nicht liberal! geldfuerdiewelt.de/p/weniger-lose…
Yesterday in Helsinki, I did a presentation on the outlook of major fiscal consolidations in the €zone from 2025 onwards, also discussing how monetary policy enters the picture. The video is here (I start at 13:30). Thanks to the organisers @HolappaLauri vimeo.com/event/4241244/…
One horse off a proper sign of the apocalypse.
Escaped Household Cavalry horses rampage through London: Five animals including one covered in blood run loose after throwing off riders during exercise - smashing into cars and a bus and leaving one soldier lying injured on floor trib.al/0ecBgJg
Puh, laut @WAZ_Redaktion bin ich der "Anti-Lindner"😆 waz.de/politik/articl…
P.S. in the UK, the government has been discussing for ages to cap non-compete clauses to 3 months. Similar strong pushback from employers is one of the reasons for the long delays. Needless to say the US is doing it right. Non-compete caluses should be banned altogether.
ICYMI -- here is the previous one x.com/davideoneglia/…
If you still need more convincing that inflation is about *power* and that CBs are always too keen on cutting the wage cycle short (last bulwark of neoliberalism), you should to read this. cc @darioperkins who taught me this years ago & @freyabeamish 😉 handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldp…
Another excellent example of the same series: inflation is about power
if you think inflation is not about the balance of power between labour and capital then you can ignore this. @darioperkins @DavideOneglia Employee non-compete agreements barred by US regulator ft.com/content/0abc66… via @FT
@acemaxx I‘m not so sure. shiftingwealth.blogspot.com/2024/04/is-us-…
This is a really big deal—Biden administration just published a rule giving new overtime protections to 4.3 million workers! epi.org/press/epi-pres…
@RishiSunak You are an evil fascist
Let’s see what manufacturing data today brings!
S&P 500: expensive #cyclical stocks: most of which are trading at multiples above their 5y average, chart @tatianadariee
@acemaxx @BloombergTV Wenn ich bei der Umrechnung von MBtu in MWh gerade keinen Fehler gemacht haben, liegt der aktuelle Gaspreis (TTF) in Europa beim fünffachen vom US Preis. Anfang März war es rd. vierfach. Einfach Wahnsinn
In Long Problems, @thomasnhale outlines political strategies for tackling #climate change and other “long problems” that span generations. Read a free sample of this pathbreaking book on #EarthDay2024. Learn more: hubs.ly/Q02sWSpx0
Go to a gym, coffee shop or grocery store and you can see stupid in real time
I am convinced the average IQ is dropping in real-time.
A very good spring-morning from Helsinki, Finland. 🫡🤦😂
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