david @davidwmarsh

omfif.org Joined December 2011

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

‘Think the unthinkable’: British Treasury veteran Peter Sedgwick suggests new fiscal-monetary approach. Britain is grappling with the first inflation crisis since Bank of England independence in 1997. Sedgwick believes Treasury should be back in the game. lnkd.in/eWJEPxi6

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

Seminal piece by IMF’s Ashok Bhatia on OMFIF website on euro area central banks’ stretched balance sheets. Vital reading for everyone exploring trials facing CBs in aftermath of massive QE. Ashok’s message: Don’t worry (too much) - problem is manageable! lnkd.in/egzqwSyU

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

3 facts: 1) Leading central banks losses from higher interest rates/excessive QE. 2) Future seigniorage income smaller - cash falling.3) Central banks boosting income at commercial banks’ expense. So I believe AI is vital in commercial v central bank figh lnkd.in/ey-t-JSb

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

Janet Yellen in Beijing. Mark Sobel asks if she can bring calm and calculation to Sino-American relationship. I believe America is basing China policy on perception of its own relative strength. Much healthier than view of US weakness just a few years ago lnkd.in/eejQh-wd

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

The European Central Bank is persisting too long with re-investing bonds purchased under its emergency 2020 pandemic messures. This is distorting interest rate structures throughout the euro area and holding back welcome attempts to reform budgetary rules lnkd.in/e-_ugJ-X

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

Inflation stuck at 8.7%, no choice for Bank of England but to intensify rate tightening. Andrew Bailey has declared ‘no ifs and buts’ in inflation fight. Yet with more criticism of earlier complacency, he faces crisis of confidence. So does Rishi Sunak. lnkd.in/eWR8Eedi

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

Andrew Bailey, Bank of England governor, sidestepped some opprobrium after 2022 Truss-Kwarteng debacle. He’s now under fire again. Real problem is British exceptionalism. Autumn reprieve only temporary. lnkd.in/etiH6-_b

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

Mark Sobel, OMFIF US chair, sums up what’s at stake at the Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting. The Fed may ‘skip’ a hike, but that’s not the same as a longish tightening pause. And, once rates reach a plateau, they are likely to stay there for some time lnkd.in/eNH-kN-5

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

Europe’s growth prospects depend hugely on success in transforming the economy towards lower carbon emissions. And ‘greening’ will require significantly greater use of capital markets. Both objectives are held back by squabbling in the German coalition. lnkd.in/edriT-3d

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

Arch pragmatist Patrick Harker of Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia tells OMFIF meeting he wants to slow momentum on monetary tightening - make haste slowly en route to 2% inflation. No need to ‘crush the economy’. All very sensible. lnkd.in/e9ZdqiHj

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

It’s that time of Scylla and Charybdis at European Central Bank. Markus Kerber, veteran legal battler who never takes No for an answer at German Constitutional Court, points to some contradictions in Frankfurt - occupying minds of some ECB policy-makers. lnkd.in/eaHF3mdk

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

Jacques de Larosiere is closest you can get to being doyen of world central bankers. In an OMFIF article, he points to the instigators of financial disorder - central banks themselves. lnkd.in/dq-afK_N

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

Revealing OMFIF article by U.K. treasury veteran Peter Sedgwick on 1980s curency warnings still reverberating around British politics today. Even highly intelligent ministers and officials ignored the warnings . No wonder Liz Truss blundered into the trap lnkd.in/gK6xvGg8

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

lnkd.in/eAPPZeAc. Strong, cautious words. In talk with OMFIF & University College London :’Risk of doing too much [in credit tightening] at least as much as too little.’ lnkd.in/eWEDXjDF

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

. Unsettling global concerns from OMFIF advisory council. If inflation & interest rates stay higher for longer, what happens to biggest debtors? lnkd.in/eQA6SvbD

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

Giorgia is on many people’s minds. Italy is racing to deploy €200bn-plus of European spending that could radically improve growth prospects. PM Meloni has had a good start - with steadying hand of predecessor Mario Draghi not far behind her. Will it last? lnkd.in/dtMJC8UE

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

Joachim Nagel, Bundesbank pesident, flies the flag of monetary tightening - but calls too for a social contract, where companies and workers share anti-inflation pain. The balance went down well with a Scottish audience on final day of an OMFIF UK tour. lnkd.in/eJgrkmNi

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david @davidwmarsh

2 years ago

Telling it like it is. OMFIF’s Clive Horwood relates how the fall of Credit Suisse - sad and sorry tale though it is - does not represent part of a global banking crisis. But it’s unquestionably bad news for Switzerland - with lessons for rest of Europe. lnkd.in/e4sJyAgy

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david @davidwmarsh

3 years ago

Back from a week-long fact-finding tour of ‘China after lockdown’ , OMFIF’s John Orchard has produced an authoritative account of what’s happening on the shifting financial scene. After recent years’ setbacks Hong Kong is mounting a fight back … lnkd.in/eZ8GyBwQ

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david @davidwmarsh

3 years ago

One year on: Without Ukrainian valour, nothing positive would have been possible. If the US and its allies take advantage of the openings created by blood and sacrifice, and Putin carries on failing, in six months the world could look a more stable place. lnkd.in/ekzZDAGT