Intel Arb @intelarb
Macro | Cross-Asset | Markets Joined February 2020-
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Is the Economy Strong or Weak? And for who? 🧐 I don't think there's enough people talking about median vs. average economic statistics. If you consider the fact that inequality is at all-time highs in the US, the divergence between the two should continue to grow larger on a…
Did I say pump in the morning and close at $5.49?……. Should have realized they would pump and go for $4.99!! EXACT same thing that happened 2 weeks ago $MSOS. Only a rescheduling headline will save this from closing sub $5.
Did I say pump in the morning and close at $5.49?……. Should have realized they would pump and go for $4.99!! EXACT same thing that happened 2 weeks ago $MSOS. Only a rescheduling headline will save this from closing sub $5. https://t.co/08jH4ZlUGw
Trump is a populist, not a Republican. Cannabis is a populist trade. $MSOS
National Capitalism: A Framework to Help Think About the Intel Deal and Government Equity Stakes 📔 Someone who has been (indirectly) all over this is Russell Napier. He's taken his relatively popular American Affairs article from last year and turned it into a commonly…
Yield curve steepening points to coming inflation✍️ Over the last few months the US 10s30s yield curve spread has grinded wider. We are now the steepest since 2021. Many believe this is because of "QT pushing up term premium". This chart takes the YoY change in the 30Y less…
Without a doubt in my mind - all of the CNBC types crying over the $INTC investment will be asking where the government support is the very next time stocks fall -30%. $PLTR will be -70% off the highs at some point - “the government should really think about investing down here”
$MSOS closed right on the post-election gap-down level at $5.50 Long way to fill the entire gap up at $6.83 Hard to see this filling without a rescheduling announcement...
Thoughts on Jackson Hole and the Coming 5-Year Policy Framework 📝 FAIT (average inflation targeting) was released at JH 2020. It was a way to give confidence to markets after the deflationary-risks of March 2020… “not only are we not going to hike, but we’ll let inflation…
“Oh you thought the index was allowed to move intraday? Nice try.” $SPX back to flat. $VIX back red.
Few point this out... The US Dollar is HEAVILY correlated to rates vol. The potential for a dollar rebound, just as we pass the seasonal low in volatility is under-appreciated. $EURUSD $MOVE $VIX $DXY
Just as VIXperation passes, we have momentum factor equities breaking down relative to low-vol. The AI unwind is just beginning. $NVDA $QQQ $MTUM $XLV
And so it begins… META TO DOWNSIZE AI DIVISION, SOME EXECUTIVES EXPECTED TO LEAVE: NYT $PLTR $NVDA $SMH $MSFT $META
And so it begins… META TO DOWNSIZE AI DIVISION, SOME EXECUTIVES EXPECTED TO LEAVE: NYT $PLTR $NVDA $SMH $MSFT $META https://t.co/YHldz6JT0z
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