Junk debt is starting to look almost as safe as investment-grade.
The yield gap between the highest-rated junk bonds and the lowest-rated IG bonds has shrunk to just 0.8% — near the tightest since 2019.
Risk premiums everywhere are getting squeezed.
Gold bugs, meet your biggest allies: central banks.
2024 = 1,000+ tons bought, 3rd year running.
They now hold 20% of all the gold ever mined.
$GLD $GDX $GC
⚠️ Yield Curve Warning
The 2s–30s Treasury spread is steepening fast, its widest in years.
History says beware:
This same setup preceded the dot-com crash (2000–02) And the Global Financial Crisis (2007–09)
Both times → brutal bear markets followed.
📉 JOLTS: Job openings slipped to 4.3% in July (4.4% prior), falling more than expected.
Vacancies per unemployed worker dropped below 1 for the first time in 4+ years. Hires, quits & layoffs were steady.
Consumers expect to spend 5% less this holiday season vs 2024, the first drop since 2020.
Big picture: 84% plan to cut back over the next 6 months, blaming rising prices, new tariffs, and higher living costs.
This is why you buy fear and sell euphoria
not the other way around like most do.
Markets punish emotions.
Discipline buys value when others panic and takes profits when they’re greedy.
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