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Thinking back to this week, can’t help but be reminded of the Fed this time last year
Similar message of being in a good place, no rush to cut
Then some weak data and labour market reports hit and they cut 50bps in Sep
History doesn’t repeat but often rhymes
Increasingly…
The tightening rate differential between the USD and the EUR is why the dollar is falling. Comments from Trump bashing Powell and Trump’s plan to nominate a new Fed chair early, along with tariff jitters, have also contributed to a bearish USD.
But the previous sell-off in…
Investors and market commentators are reading too much into short-term market movements in rates, currencies and equities.
I believe that it is much more likely that recent sharp moves in these asset classes is due to highly leveraged market participants being forced out of…
Market Insights with The Carny – April 10, 2025
(Please like, RT and comment if useful, thank you!)
Yesterday we got the typical response you see from governments when equities and bonds both collapse. Generally, the bond market provides a better signal for anticipating…
Core CPI was 3.248%, rounded to 3.2%.
If Core CPI were 0.002% higher, it would have been 3.250%, rounded to 3.3%.
As I write, the S&P 500 is up 2%, or 116 points.
Was the S&P 500 just 0.002% away from an unchanged day?
Core CPI was 3.248%, rounded to 3.2%.
If Core CPI were 0.002% higher, it would have been 3.250%, rounded to 3.3%.
As I write, the S&P 500 is up 2%, or 116 points.
Was the S&P 500 just 0.002% away from an unchanged day?
Bond moves benefitted risk assets today for the first time in awhile.
But make no mistake, yields are still in control here. And they've risen >100bps in recent weeks with stocks and the real economy not feeling much impact yet.
The 10-year Treasury yield has been super sensitive to fairly minimal changes in the outlook.
Look no further than the slightly-above-consensus NFP on Friday and the better-than-feared CPI today
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