Mountain View Trading @DanWiserMtnView
40+ years in finance - CPA & markets; swing trader/investor. All opinions my own - not invest advice. Enjoy hiking in natl parks - Bear Lake at RMNP. Midwest, USA Joined November 2019-
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Since early Aug, buy $SPX @ 21 EMA and sell @ ~6500. One of them is going to give real soon... If 21 EMA gives, it will break pattern in place since late April.
I hope you are already following @FrankCappelleri...if not I really think you should.
I hope you are already following @FrankCappelleri...if not I really think you should.
$SPX can do whatever it wants (esp in Sept & Oct!), but warning signs to me are weekly EMA(5) / EMA(13) neg cross along with Wm%R (14) below -50. Both looking good so far... Have a great holiday weekend!
Amazing $SPX strength since Apr when cross back > 20 d, and Wm %R >-50. Barely flirted with either one since then. Weak seasonals ahead, but huge burden of proof on bears.
Interesting thread..."A high ratio isn't a crash signal by itself, but it's a vulnerability guage."
GM. $SPX outperformed $XLK early in '25, but RS turned in favor of $XLK at Apr lows and never looked back...still going...
Hats off to the bulls who today held EMA(5)/EMA(13) right where they had to, & pulled Wm%R(14) back above -50 to -43.06. Still no quit so far in the bulls since the April rebound.
Hats off to the bulls who today held EMA(5)/EMA(13) right where they had to, & pulled Wm%R(14) back above -50 to -43.06. Still no quit so far in the bulls since the April rebound.
$SPX bulls on defense imo w/Wm%R(14) <-50 (1st time since Apr sell-off). EMA(5)/EMA(13) barely holding on...
Well said @FrankCappelleri.
$SPX w/ATH each day last wk pushed RSI(5) > 90. Below are 8 times since Nov '23 low with RSI(5) > 90. July '24 led to ~8% DD (EMA 8/21 cross was heads up); other 7 had little or no impact on uptrend. Doesn't guarantee anything for this time, but good to know the history.
Williams %R momentum oscillators (ST & inter) remain in solid bullish territory. But seasonal weakness often kicks in soon (as shown for past 2 yrs). Intermediate (125) fell off in '23 & '24 around this time (not a prediction), so stay alert...
No prediction from me re latest tariff news, but $SPX bullish imo as long as: 1. EMA(5) > EMA(13) 2. $SPX holds key inter support ~6000 3. NYSE net new highs stay > 0 Things can change fast, but okay for now... HAGW!
$SPX w/ATH 4 of last 5 days...impressive! Has driven RSI(5) 10d MA >76. Blue lines show recent 10d MA this high. A pause/pullback would be normal. But, some prior outliers (not shown): 1. 7/17/98 -10.45% next 4 wks 2. 7/12/99 -7.24% next 4 wks 3. 8/16/22 -8.34% next 4 wks

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