EMgist @EMgist
Macro watcher since 2005. Ex-EM Debt Analyst. Synthesizer-trader of market narratives. “(+/-)” = Bullish/bearish over ST/M-LT). Personal views, not advice. Los Angeles, CA Joined November 2013-
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US elections: What the Biden-Trump Rematch Means for the US Stock Market - Bberg SPX VIX bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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France: Macron’s approval rating fell to lowest level since Dec 2018 - Elabe for daily Les Echos. 24% trust Macron to tackle problems, down 5 points from May $EUR OAT CAC EWQ (-), EWI BTP (-/=)
France: Macron’s approval rating fell to lowest level since Dec 2018 - Elabe for daily Les Echos. 24% trust Macron to tackle problems, down 5 points from May $EUR OAT CAC EWQ (-), EWI BTP (-/=)
France: Govt debt (excl. guarantees related to EFSF) will reach 112.1% of GDP in 2027, up from 109.0% in 2023. General govt debt-to-GDP ratio has become 3rd-highest in euro area after that of Greece and Italy - S&P Ratings $EUR OAT CAC EWQ (=/-)
France election poll: Le Pen’s RN jump from 88 to 235, falling short of absolute majority. Macron’s centrists halved from 250 to 125-155 - Harris via Reuters $EUR CAC OAT (=/-) reuters.com/world/europe/f…
France elections, EZ: Risk that France parliament may be led by far-right may focus attn on France’s dismal fiscal situation, which could shake up euro - Rabobank Foley $EUR OAT CAC (=/-) Dates: June 30: Lower house first round Jul 7: Runoff
Fed: 41% economist plurality see Fed signaling 2 cuts in June “dot plot,” while equal expect forecasts to show just 1 or no cuts at all - Bberg survey 61% need to see 3mths “positive core CPI” before cut - Bberg survey *Baseline = Q4 cut(s) unless strong recession signs sooner
Week ahead: Wed: GE CPI US CPI, Fed FOMC / SEP Thu: US PPI $TSLA annual mtg Fri: JP BOJ Watching: DXY (+/=), UST (=), JPY (=/+), EUR (-/=), SPX (v/=)
Fedspeak NLP Index: What 60,000 Headlines Say About the Fed’s Next Move - Bberg bloomberg.com/news/features/…
China eqty: Chart technicals are positive - Bberg $MCHI $Shcomp $HSI (=/+), $KWEB $CHIR (=) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Week ahead - 17-20 Oct: Mon/17: $BAC, ECB speak Tue/18: $GS, US IP, China GDP+IP+Retail Wed/19: EZ CPI, Fed speak+Beige book Thu/20: US existing home sales $MCHI $KWEB $CQQQ $EUR $UST (v/+)
Japan: MoF has $120-130bn to use for intervention before it has to start selling USTs and so it has another 5-6 shots if they intervene at $20bn rate it did on 22 Sep - Credit Agricole $JPY $UST (v/-), $USD $DXY (v/+)
Japan: MoF has $120-130bn to use for intervention before it has to start selling USTs and so it has another 5-6 shots if they intervene at $20bn rate it did on 22 Sep - Credit Agricole $JPY $UST (v/-), $USD $DXY (v/+)
UK: Four steps that the BOE could take to repair gilt market - HSBC Major via FT $GBP $Gilt $Bund $UST (=/v) on.ft.com/3EA1xaV
US-China tech: US restricts exports of advanced semiconductors, chips $MCHI $KWEB $CQQQ $SOX $SMH (-/v)
US-China tech: US restricts exports of advanced semiconductors, chips $MCHI $KWEB $CQQQ $SOX $SMH (-/v)
Week ahead - 10-14 Oct: Mon/10: Fed Brainard Tue/11: Fed Mester, IMF WEO Wed/12: Fed FOMC minutes, US PPI, ECB Lagarde Thu/13: US CPI, EIA oil inventory Fri/14: US Retail sales, UMich sentiment, bank earnings $UST $EUR (v/=), $USD $DXY $SPX $XRT $XLF (v/-), $Oil $WTI $USO (v/+)
China Covid Cases Rebound ahead of Party Congress: Highest nationwide case count since 2 Sep. 8 cases in Beijing $MCHI (=/v) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
US eqty: G5 Credit Impulse printed at 20yr lows on fiscal drag + China de-leveraging + insufficient bank lending pickup. While analysts expect earnings to grow by 8% in 2023, Credit Impulse sees double-digit EPS contraction. Earnings will disappoint hard - @MacroAlf $SPX (=/-)
US eqty: G5 Credit Impulse printed at 20yr lows on fiscal drag + China de-leveraging + insufficient bank lending pickup. While analysts expect earnings to grow by 8% in 2023, Credit Impulse sees double-digit EPS contraction. Earnings will disappoint hard - @MacroAlf $SPX (=/-) https://t.co/fgCWuuKX4n
China - Sell-side bank reasons for eqty optimism post-Party Congress: Sharper focus on economy - Citi Reintegration w/ ROW - BAML Reduced conflicting policy goals - GS $MCHI $KWEB $CQQQ $EEM (+) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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