TRADERS LORE: life is about the increment.
When one takes a hit, suffers a personal/collective setback, must not look back. Losers look back.
Look ONLY ahead &, when back in the saddle, you'll get encouraged, even thrilled by the slope/improvement (1st derivative).
Stock vs Flow.
File this for when doofuses talk about "financial innovation", which to me is in 99,9% of cases the same occurrence of when two teenagers proudly think they invented a new sexual position.
@INArteCarloDoss@nntaleb@AlessandroPonz4@jeuasommenulle
File this for when doofuses talk about "financial innovation", which to me is in 99,9% of cases the same occurrence of when two teenagers proudly think they invented a new sexual position.
@INArteCarloDoss@nntaleb@AlessandroPonz4@jeuasommenulle
A GENTLEMAN’S PRIMER ON SHORTING INSOLVENT SHITCOS
So you’ve found a ShitCo. It’s such an ugly zombie it couldn’t be an extra in season 19 of The Walking Dead
But it’s still got a $185m cap
And you want to be the one to mung the last rancid, putrefying drops out of that corpse
So excited to reply to this message! Steakitrage remains alive and well. You buy 2 sirloin 9oz and sell 3 sirloin 6oz, and the waiter needs to hand you $21.75.
WHY 13Fs ARE WRONG
Unless you are an investor in a fund or can find their letters, it’s hard to know what a fund owns and how they are trading it. While 13Fs can help, they are often misleading in non-obvious ways, and often downright wrong. A thread:
1/
1) In stocks, fund flows usually dominate performance. Once flows start, they tend to be reflexive as performance leads to future fund flows, both in and out. Therefore, the 1st day of the quarter is always interesting as we play this investing game with quarterly cycles…
PART 6: EDGE
Most L/S generalist equity funds are similar - lowest barrier to entry strat with innumerable, invisible differences from outside. Many small, good decisions have to be made to generate alpha. Here are some we made that worked for us:
@MadThunderdome There are *so* many good ones in software and tech writ large.
Lots of analysts about to learn that FX has impacts that extend well beyond the topline for any company who has a cost structure that doesn't naturally hedge their revenue mix. Currency hedges can delay/cushion.
My dad took out a mortgage in 1982. Rates were 13 and homes were appreciating at 25% a year. He got 1200bps of positive carry with 5 turns of debt. Was making 60% on his equity each year and had a free call option on refinancing if mortgage rates declined (which they did)…
TO ALL EQUITY PMs:
YOU MAY NOT BE INTERESTED IN OPTIONS, BUT OPTIONS ARE INTERESTED IN YOU!
$SPX options make up 16% of the $SPX market cap!
Options gamma is one of the most significant structural flows within the equity markets.
Let's explore how it impacts your business 👇
1/ Lessons From The Tech Bubble:
Last year, I spent my winter holiday reading hundreds of pages of equity research from the 1999/2000 era, to try to understand what it was like investing during the bubble
A few people recently asked me for my takeaways. Here they are -
1/
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, I'll walk you through some key concepts related to Survival, Resilience, and Aging:
- Conditional Lifetime Probabilities,
- The Force of Mortality,
- The Lindy Effect, and
- Taleb's Turkey.
(h/t @nntaleb)
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Share some photos/videos of traditional Chinese Culture
Welcome friendly discussions from people around the world 💕
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