Caleb Sevian @CalebSevian
Macro Strategist and personal friend of Mr. Incredible. focuspointlmi.substack.com Joined October 2011-
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mind the gap, there's a lot of space between the atlanta fed's estimate and what strategists are thinking , suggesting the economy is stronger than strategists are giving it credit for. This also shows up in the citigroup economic surprise index, which is moving steadily higher
mind the gap, there's a lot of space between the atlanta fed's estimate and what strategists are thinking , suggesting the economy is stronger than strategists are giving it credit for. This also shows up in the citigroup economic surprise index, which is moving steadily higher
Market reactions, measured by the daily moves in the S&P500 on release dates, looks like a shadow of Fed remarks, tracking the shift in Fed rhetoric towards concern about growth versus inflation.
This week's Fed meeting to highlight the push-pull of concerns about the seasonality and persistence of services inflation versus the increasing pressure on low income consumers and small businesses from higher rates. Balancing act for the Fed.
In analyzing historical precedence when there was a large dispersion between the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000, on a quarterly basis, we found a strong relationship in higher returns of the S&P500 in periods were the disparity is larger.
Thursday’s rally was marked the 16th largest dispersion between the Goldman Sachs Most Shorted Index and the Russell 1000 Growth. Looking at the other top 15 days we make the follow observations: - They happen in clusters - If no recession, avg 60-day gain in SPX was 8.9%
Be my guest to rotate in to small caps
A simple explanation of why only 18% of active fund managers who benchmark against the S&P500 have beaten the benchmark this year
A simple explanation of why only 18% of active fund managers who benchmark against the S&P500 have beaten the benchmark this year
Would you be worried if your debt servicing costs had the shape of this curve?
Sounds pretty dovish to me
Our Labor Dashboard currently only has 3 out of 24 indicators pointing positive. That's not to say disaster is a foregone conclusion, but it bears keeping a close eye on labor markets because there's a big difference between a controlled downturn and a non-linear acceleration.
Consider... perhaps the number of postings have changed due to the pricing plan changes... "In 2023, employers using global jobs site Indeed will pay only when a candidate starts or submits an application, rather than when they click on a job ad, as is currently the case."
Consider... perhaps the number of postings have changed due to the pricing plan changes... "In 2023, employers using global jobs site Indeed will pay only when a candidate starts or submits an application, rather than when they click on a job ad, as is currently the case."
Initial jobless claims are rising and producer prices have slipped. The growth and inflation tradeoffs for the Fed are shifting. It’s getting close to time to recalibrate policy.
The CPI and PPI data mean core PCE likely rose only 0.11% in May, well below the 0.19% average for May-Dec implied by the Fed's new forecasts. y/y core PCE should be just 2.6% in May, down from 4.7% in May last year. No wonder markets don't believe the new dotplot
Check out our latest Macro Thoughts - Haywire Labor Data Points in Every Direction - published this morning on substack. Macro Thoughts, by @CalebSevian open.substack.com/pub/focuspoint…
Check out our latest Macro Thoughts - Softer Nowcast Data and Price Cuts - published today on substack. Macro Thoughts, by @CalebSevian open.substack.com/pub/focuspoint…
Some quick stats about how Democrat and Republican states are fairing: Republican States Average CPI (April) 3.2% Average Unemployment (April) 3.3% Average GDP Q42023 3.5% Democrat States Average CPI (April) 3.5% Average Unemployment (April) 3.7% Average GDP Q42023 3.2%
Check out our latest Macro Thoughts - What a Title Fight Would Look Like Between AI Leaders and Economic Data - published today on substack. Macro Thoughts, by @CalebSevian open.substack.com/pub/focuspoint…
Check out our latest Macro Thoughts - Downshift in Inflation Pressures and Strong Earnings Breeds Optimism - published this morning on substack. Macro Thoughts, by @CalebSevian open.substack.com/pub/focuspoint…
Check our out latest Macro Thoughts - Cutting Through The Noise - published today on substack. Macro Thoughts, by @CalebSevian open.substack.com/pub/focuspoint…
Check out our latest Macro Thoughts - Return to Rates Driving the Boat - published today on substack Macro Thoughts, by @CalebSevian open.substack.com/pub/focuspoint…
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