Paul Mortimer-Lee @MortimerleePaul
Independent economist. Research Fellow @NIESRorg Ex-NIESR Deputy Director, ex-@bankofengland , ex- @IMF & ex-@BNPParibas Views = mine (except the wrong ones). Westchester NY Joined June 2012-
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The #MMT crowd are fond of identities (eg private sector surplus = public sector deficit), but seem to ignore an important one when talking about crowding out. The GDP identity is GDP = C + G + I + X -M Rearranging, we get I +C = GDP -G- X + M So, when the economy is at…
Is #MMT actually #backdoorsocialism? Here’s the argument: By getting people to buy into vastly increased spending financed by money printing, MMTers know inflation will be the result. They’d then increase taxes “to control inflation.” Net result- increase the size of the state…
The #MMT line that taxes do not fund spending ignores the fact that taxes are there to transfer the command over real resources from the private sector to the public sector. The modalities don’t affect that. If for example, electronic payments systems failed and no new notes…
So, if under the #MMT lens taxes exist to create demand for the currency, 1) how large a tax bill does there need to be to do that? $1? $1bn? $1trn? 2) how are taxes and the quantity of money related empirically? (Equation please) 3) if the state mandated a currency as legal…
On why people don't appreciate how well the economy is doing despite low unemployment and average inflation having declined, it is important to note that: One of the reasons people hate inflation is that it often results in changed relative prices, many unpredictable. Those…
Some comments on some of the #MMT claims about "conventional" monetary views, as they apply to money and credit in the UK. 1) That the conventional view is that the quantity of money and deposits is determined by the supply of base money and the money multiplier (the inverse of…
On players leaving #cafc, we must remember that these guys have families to support, and have ambitions and aspirations like each of us Being nasty serves no useful purpose. We need to wish them well in their future endeavors Do unto others as you would have others do unto you
USGDP Final sales to private domestic purchasers + 6.1% Exports + 0.9% Imports+7.2% Inventories subtract .35% Inflation higher than expected No shortage of domestic demand but it’s expanding way above supply potential - hence inflation. More a case for hikes than cuts.
With news of Israel’s strike on Iran tonight, it is unfortunately timely to revisit what we wrote late last year about the economic consequences of war between Israel and Hamas. The spread into a wider conflict has come later than I expected but the consequences are profound.…
Big implications for markets The Moral Hazard of Biden’s Support for Israel foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/17/isr… The US “ironclad” undertaking is problematic What if Israel escalates tensions. Can Biden back away? Does Netanyahu want confrontation to attack Iran’s nuclear program?
Short and to the point. Well worth reading from @ChathamHouse chathamhouse.org/2024/04/irans-…
Are we sure this was miscalculation? Or was it Netayahu seeking to provoke an Iranian response to bolster Biden’s flagging backing? How would the US have responded to the flattening its diplomatic mission in Syria? A case of the tail wagging the dog? nytimes.com/2024/04/17/wor…
I support @EconSteveM’s idea of the handing over the central forecast to bank staff. However, there’s the issue of whether of not this should be published. Publishing will constrain it to saying policy is appropriate. It should be an input to MPC inking, Nita summary of it,
I support @EconSteveM’s idea of the handing over the central forecast to bank staff. However, there’s the issue of whether of not this should be published. Publishing will constrain it to saying policy is appropriate. It should be an input to MPC inking, Nita summary of it,
Bank of England inflation review: Bernanke finds ‘significant shortcomings’. Well, when it comes to mistakes in forecasting, we have to listen to the guy the who said in May 2007 that subprime woes would not hurt the economy @benbernanke thetimes.co.uk/article/ba08d4…
#MMT cite manufacturing construction as showing interest rates don’t work 1) this is nominal terms. Inflation overstates it 2) AI revolution is driving computer chips 3) Taiwan/ China concerns likewise 4) Covid supply chain issues prompting nearshoring 5) EV affecting autos
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For the “US debt doesn’t matter” people, if that’s the case and we can just pile on debt with no issue, why have income taxes at all? Just put it all on the tab!
@MarcGoldwein The MMT crowd thinks because they correctly assess how the US money creation and debt system works means their proposals automatically work. Their issue is that they refuse to recognize inflation (the thing they claim is the only restraint) and advocate lower govt spending
@DomCortese @MAESTRADE @DollarBiscuit @MortimerleePaul Reserves don't constrain lending. MMTers know this.
@MMTmacrotrader @MortimerleePaul Hahah! One day #MMT says the FED sets rates now you are saying the free market (buyer and sellers" sets rates 🤣🤣🤣 Can't make this sfhitt up!! You are cluless!
As for the "why don't we just print money and skip the whole QE and Treasury borrowing system" question, If we did this, we would fully transform into what is known as a 'Banana Republic', where blatant and excessive money printing to fund gov't deficits leads to hyperinflation.
@cullenroche @DomCortese @DollarBiscuit @MortimerleePaul All right. This matches what Mehrling teaches.
MMT is economically incoherent. But it appeals to the emotions so it keeps gaining traction.
The #MMT line that taxes do not fund spending ignores the fact that taxes are there to transfer the command over real resources from the private sector to the public sector. The modalities don’t affect that. If for example, electronic payments systems failed and no new notes…
@mark_dow @MortimerleePaul @MMTmacrotrader If there are no discernable effects then why are they tapering QT. The overall balance sheet is still up dramatically since before Covid and bond returns have been atrocious since the late 21/early 22 pivot to rate hikes, even stocks have barely outpaced cash.
@mark_dow @MortimerleePaul @MMTmacrotrader The QE's not being all the same, w diff bonds purchased, have read some academic work saying that lt rates in the specific purchased bonds are most affected w secondary channels of diff effects into all lt bond classes. But this is not at all my area and don't trade it...
@DomCortese @MAESTRADE @DollarBiscuit @MortimerleePaul Interbank reserves are not for “final” settlement. They are for INTERbank transfers. That’s why they exist - to redistribute deposits around the system. MMT treats reserves as the point where money is created and destroyed. It’s a misrepresentation of their entire purpose.
@MMTmacrotrader @MortimerleePaul Here’s a diagram that shows how deposits are created through QE. The Fed has no control over whether those deposits are spent or recycled back into financial assets but in this sense it can become inflationary either through higher consumption via deposits or wealth effect.
@MortimerleePaul the very root of it is at the beginning of Mosler's seminal paper: that the govt can better allocate resources than private owners.
@spike4169 @MortimerleePaul That’s as true as saying there are no net financial assets on earth. It’s both useless and misleading. MMT depicts NFA as tho saving cant come from within the pvt sector. Saying private saving is (S-I)=(G-T) assumes I=0. That’s absurd. I is THE most important part of what…
@spike4169 @MortimerleePaul @wbmosler If they purchased bonds from nonbanks as part of QE wouldn't that also increase bank deposits?
@MortimerleePaul I think thats right Paul. But I also think you can simply finance the government projects you want and accept the crowding out and resource misallocation/deadweight loss that involves. I agree with you that the modalities are broadly immaterial.
@MortimerleePaul Free traders should welcome mercantilists imposing such costs on themselves to benefit their trading partners
@spike4169 @MortimerleePaul My critique of MMT spells this all out more completely. There are numerous errors in MMT. I’d suggest reading it and spreading it around so other people can disabuse themselves of this fraudulent theory. pragcap.com/mmt-good-bad-u…
@wob6le @MortimerleePaul @StephanieKelton Oh I dont know. I leased a hybrid mini-van and they were telling me something absurd about the battery life and economics. Glad I only leased it now!